On Wednesday we released the first VEB Community projections. They were for St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright. Last year, the VEB projections were a bastion of optimism. Not so in the case of Wainwright's 2015 VEB Community forecast. It was pretty cloudy. Not bad, mind you, but a bit on the pessimistic side when compared to the spreadsheet projection systems.
The VEB Community is back in its usual sunshiny form when it comes to first baseman Matt Adams.
The following graphic compares 2015 Adams projections from the following:
- VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
- ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
- Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
- Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)
Please note that not all the projection systems forecast wOBA. ZiPS, Steamer, and Oliver do. PECOTA does not. Last year's experiment with having folks submit wOBA was a disaster, so we don't ask for it anymore. Instead, for PECOTA and VEB, I used a rough, back-of-the-envelope wOBA formula: ((1.8*OBP)+SLG)/3.
I suppose one could say that the VEB Community projections are in the middle of the pack when it comes to county stats, but those figures are pretty well bunched together. VEB is one homer off PECOTA for the highest, four runs scored behind Oliver for the highest, and two RBI behind PECOTA and Steamer for the highest total there. (There's a reason I'm not going to pay much mind to Big Mayo's forecast stolen-base total.)
With respect to rate stats, the VEB Community forecasts Adams to have a big 2015—far better than the more objective projection systems. In 2013 as a part-time player complementing Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, Adams posted a .284/.335/.503 slash line that equaled a .365 wOBA. Last season, which was Adams's first as a major-league regular, he slashed .288/.321/.457, which was good for a .337 wOBA. VEB sees Adams bringing his OBP and SLG up toward 2013 levels but not reaching them. In other words, the VEB Community forecasts Adams's second full season as the primary first baseman to be one of growth after a somewhat overwhelming though still solid 2014 campaign. Optimistic? Sure. Unrealistic? Not at all.
140 people submitted Adams projections. I forgot to include a blank for folks' usernames in the Adams form, so I don't have lists of the highest and lowest with usernames. However, we'll have them tomorrow with the Michael Wacha post. That means today is the final day for you to submit your 2015 projected stats for Wacha. You may do so here. Please have them submitted by 6:00 p.m. CT.