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2015 VEB Community projections: Adam Wainwright

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How does the VEB Community's collective forecast for Adam Wainwright compare to the ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, and Oliver projection systems?

Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports

The results are in for the leadoff player in the 2015 VEB Community projections lineup. The VEB Community's forecasted projects for Adam Wainwright were interesting. Unlike last year, VEB is not the most optimistic in respect to Wainwright's forthcoming season. In fact, the VEB Community's projected stats were rather measured.

The following graphic compares the VEB Community projections ("VEB," in red) to the following spreadsheet projection systems:

  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
  • ZiPS (Dan Szymborski)
  • Steamer
  • Marcel (Bill Cartwright)

2015 Wainwright Projections Comparison

I was rather surprised to see the VEB Community average for Wainwright's IP and K/9 is the lowest and with the highest BB/9 and second-to-highest ERA and FIP. The VEB Community forecast for Wainwright's 2015 is fairly cloudy.

Some numbers from the VEB Community submission results spreadsheet:
  • Total submissions: 153
  • Lowest five IP: guayzimi (3), mister_manager (53.1), smilingbob14 (113), mattr262 (128), Unsellro (130)
  • Highest five IP: Buntzen (238), vances law (235), BaseballFriend317 (234), mob16151 (231), Cardsfan7575 (223.1)
  • Lowest five K/9: Antlerman1 (4.1), TheRealAaron (4.5), nando8614 (4.6), mob16151 (5.9), davetrain (6.1)
  • Highest five K/9: Mayihaveheywardwithyou (11), guayzimi (9), flood (9), Buntzen (8.6), ankiel2000 (8.55)
  • Lowest five BB/9: BigJohn (0.3), Antlerman1 (0.73), floor (1), AAA (1), JMC0219 (1)
  • Highest five BB/9: guayzimi (9), Free Mark Whiten (7.4), Vince (4.58), hr (4.1), Cardsfan7575 (3.8)
  • Lowest five ERA: BigJohn (1.93), vances law (2.15), Free Mark Whiten (2.24), BaseballFriend317 (2.35), Antlerman1 (2.37)
  • Highest five ERA: guayzimi (18.00), YearOfGlad (3.85), Youneverknow (3.78), corvus (3.66), prazspop (3.60)
  • Lowest five W: guayzimi (0), mister_manager (5), mattr262 (7), lightbulb (8), smilingbob14 (9)
  • Highest five W: BigJohn (23), Vince (22), Free Mark Whiten (21), Antlerman1 (21), Cardsfan7575 (21), Buntzen (21), ShannonIsn'tSober (21), Bherman (21)
  • Lowest five L: guayzimi (1), mister_manager (3), BigJohn (4), AAA (4), brian_k (4), praxspop (4), smilingbob14 (4)
  • Highest five L: Antlerman1 (12), dr. howl (12), I Love Ray King (12), mob16151 (11), rusty8678 11), memphisrain (11)
  • Lowest five FIP: SBOTB (1.99), BaseballFriend317 (2.11), BigJohn (2.23), vances law (2.25), Free Mark Whiten (2.31)
  • Highest five FIP: guayzimi (15.78), YearOfGlad (4.12), mattr262 (3.99), RDChris85 (3.85), Youneverknow (3.69)

Tomorrow we will unveil the Matt Adams projections. If you haven't yet submitted your stats for Adams, you may do so here. Please have yours submit before 6:00 p.m. CT.

Submit Your 2015 VEB Community Projections: