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The Cardinals limp back to St. Louis to start a series against the lowly Padres tonight after a 2-4 road trip to Baltimore and Miami. Sans Yadier Molina and Michael Wacha, the Cards' run differential has sunk into the red. The team's offense has shown little life all season long. And yet the Cardinals are somehow in the thick of the postseason race.
Despite sitting atop the NL Central standings for nearly all of the season, the Brewers have done nothing to pull away. In fact, the pack has caught up with Milwaukee. Entering play tonight, the Pirates and Cardinals are breathing down the Brew Crew's collective neck. The Buccos are just a 1.5 games back in the standings; the Cards, a mere two.
NL Central Standings (8/14/14)
|
Place |
Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Pct. |
Run Diff. |
GB |
|
1 |
Brewers |
66 |
55 |
.545 |
+31 |
- |
|
2 |
Pirates |
64 |
56 |
.533 |
+12 |
1.5 |
|
3 |
Cardinals |
63 |
56 |
.529 |
-8 |
2.0 |
|
4 |
60 |
60 |
.500 |
+28 |
5.5 |
|
|
5 |
52 |
67 |
.437 |
-44 |
13.0 |
One of MLB Commissioner Bud Selig's seminal accomplishments has been the expansion of October. Under Selig's reign, MLB has twice expanded its postseason structure. Now we have two Wild Card berths—the recipients of which will face off in a cruel, one-game death match. If the season ended today, the Cardinals would be one of the teams competing in the NLDS play-in game. What's more, they'd be a half-game out of having home-field advantage against the Pirates in the Wild Cards game.
NL Wild Card Standings (8/14/14)
|
Place |
Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Pct. |
Run Diff. |
WC2 GB |
|
1 |
Dodgers (W) |
69 |
53 |
.566 |
+57 |
- |
|
2 |
Nationals (E) |
65 |
53 |
.551 |
+86 |
- |
|
3 |
Brewers (C) |
66 |
55 |
.545 |
+31 |
- |
|
4 |
Pirates (WC1) |
64 |
56 |
.533 |
+12 |
0 |
|
5 |
Cardinals (WC2) |
63 |
56 |
.529 |
-8 |
0 |
|
6 |
63 |
57 |
.525 |
+28 |
0.5 |
|
|
7 |
61 |
59 |
.508 |
-2 |
2.5 |
|
|
8 |
Reds |
60 |
60 |
.500 |
+28 |
3.5 |
|
9 |
59 |
61 |
.492 |
-34 |
4.5 |
|
|
10 |
Padres |
57 |
62 |
.479 |
-10 |
6.0 |
|
11 |
57 |
64 |
.471 |
-5 |
7.0 |
|
|
12 |
Philies |
53 |
68 |
.438 |
-76 |
11.0 |
|
13 |
Cubs |
52 |
67 |
.437 |
-44 |
11.0 |
|
14 |
52 |
68 |
.433 |
-83 |
11.5 |
|
|
15 |
46 |
74 |
.383 |
-78 |
17.5 |
Baseball Prospectus puts together a Playoff Odds Report daily. Nowadays, it can be found on MLB.com, complete with nifty graphs. Per that webpage, "Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule." Per Baseball Prospectus, the Redbirds have a roughly 50-50 chance at making the postseason this year.
Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds (8/14/14)
|
Place |
Team |
Playoffs |
Division |
Wild Card |
|
1 |
Dodgers |
99.3% |
93.6% |
5.7% |
|
2 |
Nationals |
93.4% |
90.4% |
3.0% |
|
3 |
Brewers |
79.1% |
43.4% |
35.8% |
|
4 |
Pirates |
66.7% |
28.4% |
38.3% |
|
5 |
Giants |
56.2% |
6.3% |
50.0% |
|
6 |
Cardinals |
51.1% |
23.2% |
27.9% |
|
7 |
Braves |
20.9% |
6.7% |
14.1% |
|
8 |
Reds |
22.6% |
5.1% |
17.5% |
|
9 |
Marlins |
7.4% |
2.1% |
5.3% |
|
10 |
Padres |
1.3% |
0.0% |
1.3% |
|
11 |
Mets |
1.9% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
Philies |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
Cubs |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
14 |
Diamondbacks |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
15 |
Rockies |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
So here the Cardinals are. Despite the injuries, the underperformance, the manager, and more, the club stands a good shot of making the postseason—and might even be able to surge to a second consecutive division title. There's reason for optimism in Cardinaldom.
Correction: The original version of this post incorrectly stated that the Cardinals went 2-6 on their recent road trip to Baltimore and Miami. St. Louis went 2-4.