This Chris Cotillo tweet came across my feed last night and was the first I'd heard that Hamels had been made available to trade:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash">#Phillies</a> have reportedly made Cole Hamels available, and the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dodgers?src=hash">#Dodgers</a> are interested. Story from <a href="https://twitter.com/Justinmillar1">@Justinmillar1</a> <a href="http://t.co/sk0auRGcm2">http://t.co/sk0auRGcm2</a></p>— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/statuses/493904157980778496">July 28, 2014</a></blockquote>
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The linked article, from Justin Miller at SBNation's MLBDailyDish notes that the a confirmed report from a Phillies official that they are asking for "four or five top prospects" in return for Hamels, which would likely make the trade one of the more lopsided in recent memory should it actually go through.
Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold had this to say regarding a potential Hamels' trade:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Cole Hamels, whose wife has STL connections, does not have <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash">#Cardinals</a> on list of teams he can block trade to, but has $96m remaining (1/2)</p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/statuses/493899525065809920">July 28, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hamels, like so many of those <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash">#Phillies</a> players, has that wallet-bursting buyout and vesting option for final year. Buyout: $6m for 2019.</p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/statuses/493899745232822272">July 28, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Hamels, of course, is married to Jefferson City native and former Survivor contestant Heidi Stroebel so that's where the Missouri "ties" come in I suppose, although it doesn't seem like she's spent a lot of time in the St. Louis area and considering the relative distance between the capital city and St. Louis, one wouldn't think that would be enough to sway the decision since the couple currently lives in Newport Beach, Pennsylvania, just outside Philadelphia and have been active in the community there.
The point about the contract is a good one though, as the buyout clause, while less than half of Cliff Lee's 2016 monstrosity, is still a considerable issue for most teams. I had a Twitter conversation regarding both Lester and Hamels trade rumors with MLB Network Radio's Mike Ferrin last night and here are his thoughts regarding Hamels to St. Louis:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/emjohnson17">@emjohnson17</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vivaelbirdos">@vivaelbirdos</a> Oh, I’m sure they are. I actually love the idea of Hamels for StL. That $$ doesn’t scare me. Big Hamels fan.</p>— Mike Ferrin (@MikeFerrinSXM) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeFerrinSXM/statuses/493942832265453568">July 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Accepting that the Cardinals would be willing to pick up all of Hamels' remaining $96M, what should John Mozeliak be willing to part with in order to acquire him?
One thing is for sure: It certainly won't be 4 or 5 prospects.
There's a bit of a balance that must be struck here between the potential costs for David Price and Cole Hamels:
- Price is not signed long term, will likely cost a similar amount in 2015 as Hamels, and would certainly turn down any qualifying offer at the end of 2015 to pursue a long term contract via free agency, allowing a team to recoup a top 50 draft pick for 2016 as part of the return for him.
- Hamels is signed long term, at a somewhat reasonable rate given his talent (basically making just slightly more than Adam Wainwright on his remaining years, and we'd all agree that Wainwright was a steal), but he's not quite as good as David Price and is also a fair bit older. So while the club dealing for Hamels is getting more guaranteed service from him, they are also getting more downside risk as well.