Future Redbirds Top 20 Prospects: Mid-Season Review, 11-20

20. Edmundo Sosa

(fourstick: 19; Cardinals645: NR)

Our take in February:

It's always safe to be a little skeptical of any numbers coming out of the Dominican Summer League, but I've heard two solid reports on Sosa that put his defense at a 60/70 at SS, and offensive tools that trend to average/plus. There's little doubt that the low minors is going to be full of potential future middle infielders trying to make a name for themselves in 2014 and I think Sosa is the best of that group.

Midseason Update:

Sosa has just 96 PA’s in the short season Gulf Coast League, but his numbers are eerily similar to what his put up in 186 PA’s in the DSL in 2013: .291/.365/.453; .162 ISO; .384 wOBA. He makes a ton of contact, striking out just 11.5% of the time, and has swiped 4 bags without being caught so far. Defensively there have been some more questions than the F-R crew anticipated -- the arm seems more fringe for the position than was noted in the pre-season but he does have good range and is smooth, so he’s likely to stay on the infield, he just might have to move over to the keystone to do so and he’s certainly got the bat to play over there.  Ben Badler over at Baseball America is certainly a fan:

If the Red Sox are talking to the Cardinals about Jake Peavy, if I'm Boston, I want Edmundo Sosa tacked on to that deal. Young SS can hit.

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) July 8, 2014

Verdict:

Stock up. He’ll certainly be higher than 20 when we re-rank just due to the potential of the bat alone and the possibility of staying at SS.

19. Zach Petrick

(fourstick: NR; Cardinals645: 14)

Our take in February:

I originally had Petrick up closer to the Cooneys and Gonzaleses on my own list, before bumping him down a bit. He's another guy nearly lost in a sea of decent rotation arms. His incredible and exciting launch through the system as an undrafted guy makes it easy to overlook that his FIP (almost) doubled from High A to AA. These are smallish sample sizes here (less than 50 IP each), but the point is he still has some work to do. I think he's a back rotation guy with good minor league performances a la Whiting, Cooney, and Tyler Lyons, but this version of Petrick is still relatively new and may yet surprise us more like Lance Lynn. Among the guys future 5th starter/middle reliever guys in the system, he's the one I'm most interested to watch.

Midseason Update:

The Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2013 has had a tale of two seasons thus far. After 18.2 innings of 2.24 FIP in Springfield to start the year, Petrick was promoted to Memphis when Tyler Lyons was promoted to the big leagues to fill in for Joe Kelly in April. The Pacific Coast League finally produced some struggles for the right hander: Identical 4.97 ERA/4.97 FIP so far in AAA, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 17.2% across three levels in 2013 all the way to just 8.2% in AAA in 2014. Petrick’s deceptive delivery and mid-90’s velocity doesn’t seem to help him miss bats against better hitters -- Ryan noted in the preseason preview that his FIP had doubled from A+ to AA which certainly told the proper story of what’s happened in 2014.

Verdict:

Stock down. The real issue here is age -- Petrick turns 25 at the end of the month so there’s not a lot of projection left nor is the club likely to take the long view of his struggles given that fact. There are simply too many arms in the system to leave him in the rotation for  too much longer as the younger talents behind him progress. I think there’s some potential for him in the bullpen given that his velocity in short spurts might be able to induce some whiffs.

18. Mike O'Neill

(fourstick: 20; Cardinals645: 19)

Our take in February:

Such a hard prospect to rank, given that his offensive skills literally break the traditional metrics through which to measure a player. His lack of versatility does not, however, and it's what's likely to hold him back from ever getting a regular job in the big leagues. O'Neill can hit, and I've got no reservations about him being able to do so at the big league level either -- but he can't probably hit enough to play corner outfield or first base, which are the only two positions that he's suited for defensively.

Midseason Update:

Well, O’Neill’s been DFA’d once already this season and he’s still here, indicating no other club has interest in a 26 year old left fielder hitting .266/.346/.354 in the Texas League. The dream of the "perfect snowflake" was good while it lasted, but dead ball era skills just have a hard time playing up in the modern game, and the bloom is certainly off the rose for O’Neill at this point.

Verdict:

Stock down: With better players clogging up the outfield at Palm Beach and Peoria, O’Neill is likely not long for the organization. In fact, had James Ramsey been healthy the entire first half, O’Neill might be out of the organization already. Given his work ethic and talented approach at the plate, perhaps his ultimate destination is minor league hitting coach or roving hitting instructor.

17. Vaughn Bryan

(fourstick: 13; Cardinals645: NR)

Our take in February:

Jason Parks isn't the only one who thinks Bryan has huge upside -- there are a number of other high baseball IQ's who were impressed with Bryan as well. Dan Kantrovitz certainly seems to be a believer. I'm still on the fence that he'll ever hit his ceiling, but the tools are just too good to ignore. I still like Tilson's floor a lot more -- he's already got refined skills that Bryan doesn't at the same age with far less playing time.

Midseason Update:

I’ll stick with what I said in the pre-season: The tools are really hard to ignore with Bryan, but other than flashing some excellent defense and a good arm in the first half there really isn’t a lot to talk about: .253/.316/.368 in 193 PA’s in A ball, a .305 wOBA. Just 7 steals total for a guy Jason Parks gave plus-plus ratings to for run/speed in January is concerning, as his batted ball profile -- 12.9% LD rate and 57.9% ground ball rate mean he’s quite literally Willie Mays Hays, hitting them on the ground and legging them out. Bryan’s .115 ISO is in line with his short season numbers from a year ago.

Verdict:

Stock Neutral: We didn’t rank him in the top 10 like B-P did, despite the fact that he was a veritable KNAACK box of tools. That looks pretty smart right now, but having seen him live a couple of times this year I still feel like he’s a better player than his numbers indicate so far and that perhaps we’re going to see him improve over the next 6 weeks.

16. Anthony Garcia

(fourstick: 12; Cardinals645: NR)

I've already planted my flag on camp Garcia for 2014, dutifully holding on to the bandwagon rails after a bumpy ride in 2013. Still a big believer in a bat with tons of raw power and his batted ball profile from last year (admittedly not 100% trustworthy) was too darn good to put up the below average BABIP he sported the entire summer. Something's got to give with Garcia, and I'm betting he returns to form in 2014 and absolutely mashes the Texas League in the late summer.

Midseason Update:

Garcia missed most of the month of may with injury, just when he seemed to be coming out his April funk and has really started to rake the last couple of weeks, but he’s hitting just .235/.320/.452 overall in 244 PA’s this year. The .217 ISO is encouraging in the Florida State League, a pitcher’s league if there ever was one, and his .359 wOBA looks more impressive than his slash line, as does his reduction in strikeout rate from 24% to just over 16% in 2014. There’s a case to be made that he’s gotten a bit unlucky on balls in play (.249 BABIP) and that’s hurting his batting average, and I’m going to be the one to make that case too -- I still think this kid can really hit and a half season of struggles at age 22 in a pitcher friendly league isn’t going to sway me just yet.

Verdict:

Stock neutral: I don’t think he’ll get to AA like I predicted in the preseason, but I still think he’s talented enough to be in the top 20 prospects holding down one of the middle teen spots and I like his potential more than some of the other guys on this list as well. The power is legit, it’s just a matter of him making enough contact, and the drop in strikeout rate is encouraging on that front.

15. Cory Jones

(fourstick: NR; Cardinals645: 11)

I am now the 16th person in all of VEBdom to put Jones in his or her Top 20. What's interesting is that almost ⅔ of us have him 14th or higher. I guess we're the ones that are suckered in by high velocity. In my mind Jones has a future for high leverage spots out of the bullpen, but he could be an interesting arm in the rotation as well, though that's a bit less likely. I don't mind having to project a player's value based on upside (like a high 90s fastball), but I prefer for him to have already played well at his minor league level, and for that level to be Low A or higher. Jones meets those requirements, so I've taken a chance with this rank. I think this will still look good next year, but the real test might not come until he pitches at AA; we'll see how smart we 16 are then.

Midseason Update:

Jones made just 5 starts for Palm Beach before going down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in May. We likely won’t see him pitching in games until at least next June.

Verdict:

Stock down. Elbow injuries aren’t as serious as they used to be for pitchers, but it’s not a guarantee that anyone makes it all the way back and Jones was right around age appropriate for league when he went down and hadn’t made the jump to AA yet. A year off during that key development period is a tough break, but he’s still got a very good arm and if his velocity returns post-surgery he’ll get every opportunity.

14. Tommy Pham

(fourstick: 15; Cardinals645: 16)

If it feels like we've been waiting a half decade for Tommy Pham to break out...well, it's because we have. He's played 100 games only once in the last four years, his breakout 2010 campaign at Springfield, and has been a mess of injuries ever since then, so his numbers are hard to take seriously at AAA since he's never been 100% healthy when playing there. Pham is hitting .296/.381/.504 with 57 XBH in 537 career PA's (over 4 seasons no less) with Springfield, which happens to be the only place where he's spent a considerable time not dinged up. We're fitfully hoping he can stay healthy this year and somehow find PA's among the plethora of outfield talent likely to start the year at Memphis.

Midseason Update:

Could not be going much better for Tommy Pham this season: .324/.388/.519 in 195 PA’s with Memphis, good for a .387 wOBA. Yeah, he’s 26. Yeah, he’s not been an everyday player due to the presence of prospects ranked a bit higher than he is, but dammit, when Tommy Pham is healthy he’s one hell of a ball player and we’re seeing it on full display this year.

Verdict:

Stock up. Don’t rule out a promotion to the big leagues at some point this season if he continues to hit this well, almost certainly when rosters expand in September. Pham has been an F-R and VEB favorite for a long time and is finally healthy enough to show what he can do -- cross your fingers and hope he stays that way.

13. Boone Whiting

(fourstick: 16; Cardinals645: 15)

I'm a bit surprised Whiting fell short of the community projections, but it's easy to overlook him in a system this blessed with talent. Whiting is around the 5th best mid-backend rotation piece on my rankings. Given his proximity to the majors, and his solid performance at AAA last season he's a better prospect right now than the longshots further down this list, but he's probably not the sort that rises much next year. Some of those long shots will make good, at least enough to shoot up this list and past Whiting. There's not much for Whiting to do to improve his stock but keep plugging away in Memphis and wait for his shot at the majors.

Midseason Update:

Pretty much a mirror image of last season: Identical 3.92 ERA’s, and FIP that’s 8 points better than it was in Memphis in 2013, but the walk rate has ballooned by nearly 1 base on balls per 9 innings this year so that’s a bit of a concern. Whiting still isn’t much more than back end rotation filler, and when Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller are the back-end rotation filler in your organization, there’s not much use for Boone Whiting.

Verdict:

Stock down. Whiting needed to show some improvement this season and he’s actually regressed in my mind even while boosting his K rate slightly. He’s still younger than Zach Petrick and has logged a significant amount of innings in AAA, so there’s still a possibility he’s able to improve, but without great stuff it’s hard to see him making a big league impact in the Cardinals organization.

12. Greg Garcia

(fourstick: 10; Cardinals645: 13)

I was shocked when he was left off just over half of the community ballots. Garcia's hit at every level, is an average or plus defender at all the infield positions, and sports an excellent approach at the plate with walk rates above 11% for his entire minor league career. At worst, he's an excellent utility player and left-handed pinch hitter for a good ball club and probably a starting middle infielder for a mediocre team. That's a pretty valuable prospect and one that is probably being overlooked with all the upside in the current farm system.

Midseason Update:

Garcia’s power surge right out of the gate got him his first taste of the major leagues, where his walk off HBP will be remembered by Greg Garcia supporters for years. Other than that, well, ewwww: .254/.344/.379 in 324 PA’s in Memphis playing almost exclusively 2B, a .314 wOBA.  Garcia’s strikeout rate has climbed 6 points over a year ago and his walk rate is currently at 9.3%, which would be the only season in the minor leagues below double digits if he continues it over a full season. My hope in the pre-season was that he would hit well enough to force himself into Descalso’s spot on the roster since he’s a better defender everywhere and had a better offensive profile coming into the year.

Verdict:

Stock down. The "at worst" scenario from the pre-season has come to fruition: He’s now basically a utility player and 25th man on a big league roster rather than a platoon regular at 2B. Still valuable, but the offensive trend and struggles this year are a bit of a concern -- here’s hoping he turns it around in the second half.

11. James Ramsey

(fourstick: 16; Cardinals645: 10)

I have Ramsey 16th on my list because I'm just not a believer in the bat like everyone else is. Most other prospect lists I've seen note his power surge last year -- but it looks to me like he hit a few lucky home runs in the Texas League. The rest of Ramsey's power numbers didn't get the same boost: No surge in doubles or triples, just homers and a lot of singles -- and they weren't Mark McGwire laser-off-the-wall singles either. Seems like scouts are down on him being able to stay in CF too.  A lot of red flags here for me; enough that I dropped him considerably, which knocked him out of the FR Top 10.

Midseason Update:

If Ramsey could just stay on the field he might have climbed into the top 5 players in the organization at the break: .307/.387/.540 for a .409 wOBA in the Texas League with 12 homers, which was leading the league when he went down with injury in mid-May. He’s played off and on since then, battling various injuries over the course of the last two months and he’s hurt again as of the time of this writing. Still -- his power surge from a year ago has continued and the strikeout rate dropped 4 percentage points from where it was a year ago. Some improvement was expected since he was repeating the Texas League at age 24, but I think he’d be in Memphis by now if there wasn’t such a log jam of talent there (or if Tommy Pham hadn’t started raking and staying healthy)

Verdict:

Stock up: The knock on Ramsey has always been whether he could make enough contact against high minors type talent and his low minors K rates seemed to spell out that concern. He’s flipped the switch a bit this year, though, slugging the ball all over the ballpark while simultaneously reducing his strikeout rate and making more contact. That’s a good sign going forward, but he needs to have a good spell of health the last 6 weeks and return back to his spring form.