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Jenrry Mejia, Scott Rice, Carlos Torres, and Kyle Farnsworth collaborated to shut out the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday at Citi Field. It was the third time the Redbirds were held to zero runs in their first 20 games. The St. Louis offense has struggled early this year, and it's been rather frustrating to watch.
After last night's lackluster batting performance, I thought it might be fun to try and pin the blame on individual batsmen for the club's struggles. To do so, we need a performance baseline for expectations. I used an average of the VEB Community, ZiPS, Steamer, Oliver, and PECOTA 2014 preseason projections for this. Then I compared the primary position players' performance against their projections. I also excluded players with tiny PA totals such as Mark Ellis, Shane robinson, and Daniel Descalso.
Since there is no reason to expect the Cardinals to bat as poorly as they have to start the year all season, I also added the ZiPS and Steamer Rest of Season (RoS) projections for each player. There's hope for a better tomorrow.
I've ranked the Cardinals from most disappointing to least disappointing (most pleasing?). I used Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) for the rankings, since it's the most accurate and comprehensive batting stat. The higher a percentage the player's 2014 wOBA was below his projection, the most disappointing. And vice versa.
1) Allen Craig
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.294 |
.352 |
.466 |
.818 |
.356 |
Season to Date |
.197 |
.256 |
.282 |
.538 |
.245 |
Raw Diff. |
-.097 |
-.096 |
-.184 |
-.280 |
-.111 |
% Diff. |
-32.99% |
-27.27% |
-39.48% |
-34.23% |
-31.18% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .274 .330 .435 .765 .338 Steamer RoS .288 .345 .457 .802 .353 RoS Avg. .281 .338 .446 .784 .346
Craig's start to the season was positively dreadful. As VEB's Craig detailed, the Cardinals' Craig was hitting grounders everywhere—struggling to bat the ball out of the infield. But there's reason for hope. After Monday night's two-hit performance, Craig is batting .297/.366/.459/.825 over his past ten games. That's essentially equivalent to what his preseason projections average was.
2) Peter Bourjos
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.254 |
.311 |
.395 |
.706 |
.311 |
Season to Date |
.190 |
.261 |
.310 |
.571 |
.258 |
Raw Diff. |
-.064 |
-.050 |
-.085 |
-.135 |
-.053 |
% Diff. |
-25.20% |
-16.08% |
-21.52% |
-19.12 |
-17.04% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .254 .310 .414 .724 .320 Steamer RoS .241 .299 .373 .672 .300 RoS Avg. .248 .305 .394 .699 .310
Bourjos put together an excellent spring, batting for a .324/.405/.459/.864 line. Unfortunately, spring-training stats are meaningless. And Bourjos is providing anecdotal evidence of that at present. The speedster has twice as many strikeouts as he does hits, 16 to 8. Bourjos has managed to walk just three times in his first 46 PAs.
3) Matt Holliday
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.288 |
.370 |
.479 |
.849 |
.370 |
Season to Date |
.239 |
.333 |
.352 |
.685 |
.308 |
Raw Diff. |
-0.49 |
-.037 |
-.127 |
-.164 |
-.062 |
% Diff. |
-17.01% |
-10.00% |
26.51% |
-19.32% |
-16.76% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .275 .359 .480 .839 .360 Steamer RoS .286 .371 .473 .844 .370 RoS Avg. .281 .365 .477 .842 .365
Holliday has a tendency to have slow starts at the plate. Holliday's .297/.364/.476/.840 March and April batting line is the lowest of his career. Oh, that this was considered "slow" starting for more Cardinals. This season, Holliday is living up to his reputation. He's been quite bad.
4) Kolten Wong
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.265 |
.316 |
.377 |
.693 |
.300 |
Season to Date |
.237 |
.297 |
.288 |
.585 |
.261 |
Raw Diff. |
-0.28 |
-.019 |
-0.89 |
-.108 |
-0.39 |
% Diff. |
-10.57% |
-6.01% |
-23.61% |
-15.58% |
-13.00% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .264 .315 .373 .688 .306 Steamer RoS .262 .313 .367 .680 .302 RoS Avg. .263 .314 .370 .684 .304
Wong's batting line has ebbed and flowed like one might expect in the small sample size of April. After a solid start, his stats sagged, only to rise again. Of course, they've since fallen some more. Wong's struggles at the plate have apparently motivated manager Mike Matheny to give him two consecutive days off with veteran Ellis starting a second base.
5) Jhonny Peralta
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.263 |
.321 |
.402 |
.723 |
.318 |
Season to Date |
.164 |
.243 |
.388 |
.631 |
.281 |
Raw Diff. |
-0.99 |
-0.78 |
-0.14 |
-0.92 |
-0.37 |
% Diff. |
-37.64% |
-24.30% |
-3.48% |
-12.72% |
-11.64% |
Rest of Season |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
ZiPS RoS |
.258 |
.313 |
.411 |
.724 |
.320 |
Steamer RoS |
.250 |
.313 |
.384 |
.697 |
.310 |
RoS Avg. |
.254 |
.313 |
.398 |
.711 |
.315 |
6) Matt Carpenter
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.291 |
.369 |
.441 |
.809 |
.356 |
Season to Date |
.268 |
.379 |
.310 |
.689 |
.321 |
Raw Diff. |
-.023 |
+.010 |
-.131 |
-.120 |
-.035 |
% Diff. |
-7.9% |
+2.71% |
-29.71% |
-14.83% |
-9.83% |
Rest of Season |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
ZiPS RoS |
.270 |
.355 |
.404 |
.759 |
.339 |
Steamer RoS |
.280 |
.366 |
.415 |
.781 |
.349 |
RoS Avg. |
.275 |
.361 |
.410 |
.771 |
.344 |
7) Jon Jay
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.277 |
.342 |
.382 |
.724 |
.322 |
Season to Date |
.275 |
.341 |
.450 |
.791 |
.342 |
Raw Diff. |
-.002 |
-.001 |
+.068 |
+.067 |
+.020 |
% Diff. |
-0.72% |
-0.29% |
+17.80% |
+9.25% |
+6.21% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .273 .340 .381 .721 .321 Steamer RoS .276 .341 .385 .726 .323 RoS Avg. .275 .341 .383 .724 .322
Jay has met expectations and exceeded them this infant season. Jay's average and OBP are right in line with expectations, and his power so far has been rather surprising. This has earned him a fair amount of playing time over the last several games.
8) Matt Adams
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.268 |
.317 |
.479 |
.796 |
.344 |
Season to Date |
.338 |
.364 |
.486 |
.850 |
.374 |
Raw Diff. |
+.070 |
+.047 |
+.007 |
+.054 |
+.030 |
% Diff. |
+26.12% |
+14.83% |
+1.46% |
+6.78% |
+8.72% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .277 .317 .470 .787 .345 Steamer RoS .271 .319 .465 .784 .343 RoS Avg. .274 .318 .468 .786 .344
Adams has had a nice start to the season. The lefthanded batter has hit for a high average that has propped up a nearly walkless OBP. And Adams has seen only a slight dip in his Isolated Power (ISO) from last season, which is heartening.
9) Yadier Molina
2014 |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
Projection Avg. |
.295 |
.346 |
.437 |
.783 |
.340 |
Season to Date |
.347 |
.373 |
.528 |
.901 |
.392 |
Raw Diff. |
+.052 |
+.027 |
+.091 |
+.118 |
+.052 |
% Diff. |
+17.63% |
+7.80% |
+20.82% |
+15.07% |
+15.29% |
Rest of Season BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA ZiPS RoS .297 .344 .442 .786 .345 Steamer RoS .291 .342 .434 .776 .340 RoS Avg. .294 .343 .438 .781 .343
I'm not sure exactly when exactly it happened, but Yadi has become appointment television. Hungry for a mid-game snack? That can wait until after Yadi bats. Thirsty? The drink can be grabbed later because Yadi is due up this inning. Down in the late innings? If we can just get Yadi up with runners on, we have a chance. This April, Yadi has rewarded such diligent observation. He is hitting for average and power, and it's an absolute joy to behold.