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2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Adam Wainwright

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USA TODAY Sports

As expected with a player with a lot of experience, there isn't very much variance in the projections for Adam Wainwright. What is interesting to me is how different projections are similar in different ways. Oliver/ZiPS and Steamer/PECOTA both seem to have very similar algorithms to project wins, while Oliver/PECOTA and Steamer/ZiPS seem to have similar methods of projecting ERA.


W

L

IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

Oliver

17

8

227

7.85

1.66

2.93

Steamer

14

10

201

7.90

1.87

3.23

PECOTA

14

12

204

8.10

1.80

3.01

ZiPS

17

9

208

7.91

1.69

3.20

VEB(66)

19

8

223

8.16

1.80

2.85


2014_veb_projections_--_wainwright_--_comparative
Moving onto the VEB projections, there's a bigger spread than I would've anticipated. Wins range from 14-25, losses range from 5-12, IP range from 160-259, K/9 ranges from 7.00-8.76, BB/9 ranges from .90/2.50, and ERA ranges from 2.00-3.43. It's pretty ridiculous that the WORST projected BB/9 for Wainwright is 2.50, and that's a true testament to the ace's control.


W

L

IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

Minimum Values

14

12

160

7.00

2.50

2.00

25th Percentile

18

10

216

8.00

2.00

2.75

50th Percentile

19

8

222

8.17

1.80

2.92

75h Percentile

21

7

230

8.26

1.66

3.05

Maximum Values

25

5

259

8.76

0.90

3.43



W

L

IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

VEB Low ERA (gocards62)

25

5

230

8.5

2

2.00

VEB High OPS(guayzimi)

14

10

203

7.8

2.3

3.43



2014_veb_projections_--_wainwright
CELEBRITY DOPPELGANGER: There's a real consensus! Without a St. Louis tie! (I think). NOAH WYLE