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2014 VEB Community Projections: Jhonny Peralta

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Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

I remember auto-drafting Jhonny Peralta in a fantasy league back in 2005, when he hit .292/.366/.520 with 24 HR and marveling at how great those numbers were. I also remember drafting him with a high pick in 2006, when he hit .257/.323./.384 with just 13 HR and wondering what exactly happened to a player that showed so much promise. This, I think, captures Peralta perfectly.

Since he became a full-time starter in 2005, these are his wRC+ in chronological order: 136, 85, 105, 112, 83, 91, 122, 86, 123. These are his HR/FB numbers over those years: 18.0%, 9.2%, 14.0%, 13.1%, 7.9%, 7.5%, 10.8%, 8.3%, 9.8%. His offensive performance has fluctuated wildly, pretty much in-step with his HR/FB numbers. This obviously makes sense, but I can't find anything else in his peripheral numbers to explain the differences in HR/FB. Certainly, the PED question looms over anytime we're discussing fluctuating HR/FB numbers, but that's speculative at best.

The Cardinals signed Peralta to a 4 year $53M contract to fill the one huge gap in their development pipeline, and he should fill that role well at a reasonable price. As a whole, he's hit .268/.330/.425 with a +49.5 UZR over 9 full seasons. While his production year-to-year may be inconsistent, he should be a worthwhile investment.

Stats via Fangraphs

Season

Team

Age

G

PA

HR

R

RBI

SB

CS

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

2003

Indians

21

77

270

4

24

21

1

3

0.291

0.227

0.295

0.326

0.279

67

2004

Indians

22

8

28

0

2

2

0

1

0.316

0.24

0.321

0.28

0.279

66

2005

Indians

23

141

570

24

82

78

0

2

0.346

0.292

0.366

0.52

0.378

136

2006

Indians

24

149

632

13

84

68

0

1

0.327

0.257

0.323

0.385

0.312

85

2007

Indians

25

152

647

21

87

72

4

4

0.324

0.27

0.341

0.43

0.337

105

2008

Indians

26

154

664

23

104

89

3

1

0.312

0.276

0.331

0.473

0.347

112

2009

Indians

27

151

645

11

57

83

0

2

0.309

0.254

0.316

0.375

0.307

83

2010

2 Teams

28

148

615

15

60

81

1

0

0.275

0.249

0.311

0.392

0.309

91

2011

Tigers

29

146

576

21

68

86

0

2

0.325

0.299

0.345

0.478

0.356

122

2012

Tigers

30

150

585

13

58

63

1

2

0.275

0.239

0.305

0.384

0.301

86

2013

Tigers

31

107

448

11

50

55

3

3

0.374

0.303

0.358

0.457

0.356

123

Total



1383

5680

156

676

698

13

21

0.315

0.268

0.33

0.425

0.33

102