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2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Jon Jay

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USA TODAY Sports

Hey, VEB isn't the most optimistic projection! Indeed, Steamer (who, again, is the most optimistic of the projections), comes in with a .745 OPS and .329 wOBA projection while the VEB collective comes in at a .739 OPS and .328 wOBA. Those numbers are a little bit of an uptick from his down 2013, where he hit .276/.351/.370 with a .319 wOBA. The big difference between VEB and the professional projection systems is in playing time, which make sense. They don't magically know (well, Steamer does I guess) that we signed Peter Bourjos to compete with Jay, so Oliver projects 600 PA (which it does for everyone), PECOTA projects 556, ZiPS projects 570, while we project 371. Steamer's coming in low at 246.


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Oliver

600

67

7

52

12

5

0.266

0.343

0.361

0.704

0.314

Steamer

246

28

3

23

5

3

0.281

0.348

0.397

0.745

0.329

PECOTA

556

66

8

48

12

5

0.279

0.338

0.388

0.726

0.324

ZiPS

570

64

7

54

12

6

0.272

0.339

0.375

0.714

0.309

VEB(71)

371

47

5

39

7

3

0.286

0.350

0.389

0.739

0.328


2014_veb_projections_--_jay_--_comparative

Moving onto individual projections, there is understandably a large spread in playing time/counting stat projections. There is very little spread between the 25th percentile and 75th percentile for the rate stats, while the extremes lie pretty far away from that core


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Minimum Values

200

20

2

20

2

0

0.235

0.295

0.319

0.639

0.301

25th Percentile

315

39

3

32

6

2

0.280

0.344

0.378

0.725

0.317

50th Percentile

380

49

4

38

7

3

0.285

0.351

0.390

0.741

0.323

75h Percentile

424

52

5

44

8

4

0.294

0.359

0.402

0.755

0.330

Maximum Values

520

84

9

73

13

6

0.349

0.380

0.436

0.813

0.351




PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB Low OPS (zoomzoom88)

315

29

3

40

6

2

0.235

0.295

0.344

0.639

0.301

VEB High OPS(redbirds34)

306

34

3

30

6

3

0.309

0.38

0.433

0.813

0.344


Link to spreadsheet

Counting stats: very similar. Rate stats: Really far apart. And yet, I don't see either of these statlines being that far out of the realm of possibility, though the latter does look slightly more reachable than the first, if for no other reason than he's not going to get 315 PAs if he's hitting like that and defending like he has been.

2014_veb_projections_--_jay

CELEBRITY DOPPELGANGER: It's a three-way tie between Barack Obama (wat), Jaden Smith (okay...), and Tahj Mowry (THERE'S THE TICKET)