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St. Louis Cardinals 2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Mark Ellis

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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Ellis is an interesting case for VEB, because most of don't know that much about him. I've never watched more than 30-40 PAs of his over a season, and I have no idea how good or bad or young or old he looks at the plate. And VEB is still a bit more optimistic than the projections systems, although not overly so.


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Oliver

600

59

6

51

6

2

0.254

0.315

0.334

0.649

0.291

Steamer

250

26

3

21

2

1

0.257

0.312

0.353

0.665

0.296

PECOTA

168

16

2

14

2

1

0.251

0.302

0.338

0.640

0.283

ZiPS

430

51

4

43

4

1

0.252

0.311

0.343

0.654

0.291

VEB(75)

286

34

4

31

3

1

0.269

0.324

0.359

0.684

0.309



Moving onto the VEB projections


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Minimum Values

114

12

1

15

1

0

0.242

0.260

0.280

0.559

0.243

25th Percentile

235

28

3

23

2

1

0.261

0.318

0.344

0.668

0.301

50th Percentile

285

35

4

30

3

1

0.268

0.325

0.353

0.680

0.310

75h Percentile

350

40

4

38

4

2

0.275

0.333

0.369

0.705

0.316

Maximum Values

450

63

8

60

11

4

0.300

0.355

0.451

0.772

0.345




PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB Low OPS (zoomzoom)

205

12

2

26

2

1

0.256

0.26

0.299

0.559

0.243

VEB High OPS(SixPointNine)

390

63

7

60

4

3

0.269

0.321

0.451

0.772

0.315


f'n zoomzoom! But seriously, if he's hitting that poorly, I really, really hope he's not getting 205 PA. And if he's hitting .269/.321/.451, I would imagine he'll play more than 390 PA. That's probably the toughest part about projecting Ellis/Wong and Bourjos/Jay, is guessing how to allocate playing time.


CELEBRITY DOPPELGANGER: David Eckstein. STOP PICKING STL-AFFILIATED PEOPLE. Although I actually kind of see this one