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St. Louis Cardinals 2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Matt Holliday

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Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Spor

Given that Holliday is one of the most seasoned players that we projected, it shouldn't be a surprised that there is a relatively small spread among the projection systems. VEB is more optimistic, sure, but it's not by a whole lot. ZiPS has been bearish on Matt Holliday for several years in a row now (.288/.371/.484 in 2012, vs .296/.388/.525 actual; .281/.365/.473 last year, vs .300/.379/.490 actual), and that hasn't changed for 2014. Hopefully that trend continues.


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Oliver

600

76

22

82

4

2

0.284

0.365

0.470

0.835

0.364

Steamer

609

81

22

83

4

3

0.291

0.377

0.488

0.865

0.375

PECOTA

582

74

21

80

5

2

0.287

0.369

0.475

0.844

0.366

ZiPS

577

79

21

85

5

2

0.277

0.36

0.468

0.828

0.359

VEB(84)

601

96

24

97

4

2

0.299

0.380

0.495

0.876

0.380


2014_veb_projections_--_holliday_--_comparative_graphic
BGH Note: As ZiPS mastermind Dan Szymborski noted on Twitter, I had a typo on the graphic that originally ran in this post. The ZiPS OPS was wrong..360 + .468 ≠ .728. It equals .828, as the current, corrected graphic corrective shows.

Moving onto the VEB projections:


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Minimum Values

478

74

15

68

0

0

0.278

0.345

0.375

0.750

0.306

25th Percentile

590

91

21

90

3

1

0.293

0.374

0.483

0.862

0.374

50th Percentile

600

97

24

99

4

2

0.296

0.380

0.495

0.874

0.379

75h Percentile

622

100

25

102

5

2

0.302

0.388

0.504

0.888

0.385

Maximum Values

700

113

35

120

10

7

0.333

0.401

0.580

0.975

0.400




PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB Low OPS (comyn)

590

100

20

88

5

2

0.295

0.375

0.375

0.750

0.380

VEB High OPS(pattimagee)

660

105

30

115

3

1

0.320

0.395

0.580

0.975

0.400


2014_veb_projections_--_holliday_--_veb_projections_graphic

Most of the professional projections fall under or right at the 25th percentile VEB projection, which is an interesting phenomenon. Watching Matt Holliday play every day, he's still hitting the ball as hard as almost anybody in the Majors, and that may be hard for them to pick up with the age-related declines built in.


CELEBRITY DOPPELGANGER: C'mon. You all knew who was going to win this one.