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It makes a lot of sense as to why. He's coming off a gigantic 2013 where he was the best second basemen in baseball. Many of us have been watching him Single A or Double A, justifying ways that his OBP would play in the Majors. He never seems overwhelmed by major league pitching, he always works counts as a leadoff man, and he's a very capable fielder. It's perfectly justified.
But holy crap, are we bullish. We project 113 runs. The next closest is 80. We project a .306/.381/.469 slash line. The aggregated best out of the projection systems is .295/.369/.442. Using the formula ((1.7*OBP)+SLG)/3 to estimate wOBA, we project .372. Steamer (again optimistic), projects .359.
|
|
PA |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
Oliver |
600 |
74 |
9 |
65 |
7 |
3 |
0.295 |
0.369 |
0.438 |
0.807 |
0.355 |
|
Steamer |
560 |
75 |
10 |
53 |
5 |
3 |
0.291 |
0.373 |
0.442 |
0.815 |
0.359 |
|
PECOTA |
648 |
80 |
12 |
65 |
4 |
3 |
0.289 |
0.368 |
0.44 |
0.808 |
0.355 |
|
ZiPS |
615 |
79 |
10 |
69 |
4 |
3 |
0.272 |
0.351 |
0.413 |
0.764 |
0.334 |
|
VEB(111) |
671 |
113 |
12 |
71 |
4 |
2 |
0.306 |
0.381 |
0.469 |
0.850 |
0.372 |
Let's move on the VEB projections:
|
|
PA |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
Minimum Values |
450 |
68 |
5 |
45 |
0 |
0 |
0.285 |
0.283 |
0.380 |
0.740 |
0.320 |
|
25th Percentile |
650 |
105 |
10 |
65 |
2 |
1 |
0.300 |
0.375 |
0.459 |
0.837 |
0.360 |
|
50th Percentile |
680 |
111 |
12 |
70 |
3 |
2 |
0.306 |
0.381 |
0.470 |
0.850 |
0.368 |
|
75h Percentile |
700 |
119 |
14 |
77 |
5 |
3 |
0.310 |
0.390 |
0.480 |
0.870 |
0.375 |
|
Maximum Values |
730 |
184 |
19 |
94 |
12 |
10 |
0.352 |
0.420 |
0.510 |
0.923 |
0.415 |
|
|
PA |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
VEB Low OPS (gocards62) |
550 |
100 |
10 |
65 |
3 |
3 |
0.31 |
0.36 |
0.38 |
0.740 |
0.325 |
|
VEB High OPS ISawGodinGibby’sRightArm) |
725 |
150 |
15 |
85 |
4 |
1 |
0.352 |
0.418 |
0.505 |
0.923 |
0.415
|
I think we did a better job of managing the data this time around. There were a few crazy projections that we took out, and all in all, it looks pretty good. Here's a link to all of the projections. I'll add in Yadi and Craig's this weekend.
Celebrity Doppelganger: Jon Hamm! I don't see it at all, but you're the projectors! Second place was Adrien Brody, who makes a lot of sense to me
via media.kmov.com
via img2.timeinc.net
