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*St. Louis Cardinals 2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Matt Adams

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Ronald Martinez

There is actually very little variance in the rate stats predicted for Matt Adams. VEB projected an average of .275, while the others projected between .265 and .270. VEB projected an OBP of .329, while the others projected between .308 and .320. VEB projected a SLG of .498, while the others projected between .464 and .482. For the first time, Steamer wasn't the most optimistic projection system, with Oliver projecting a .001 higher OPS. Counting stats aside, I think we would all take any of the projected slash lines, though.


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Oliver

600

74

28

92

2

1

0.267

0.320

0.479

0.799

0.346

Steamer

588

71

26

84

4

2

0.270

0.321

0.477

0.798

0.345

PECOTA

519

64

26

79

1

1

0.265

0.308

0.482

0.790

0.339

ZiPS

382

45

17

56

1

1

0.265

0.309

0.464

0.773

0.336

VEB(117)

444

63

23

72

1

1

0.275

0.329

0.498

0.826

0.346


ADAMSVEB2014PROJECTIONSCOMPS title=


Here are the numbers for VEB only:


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Minimum Values

275

34

12

38

0

0

0.249

0.284

0.360

0.680

0.290

25th Percentile

400

55

21

62

0

0

0.268

0.320

0.485

0.806

0.338

50th Percentile

450

62

23

72

0

0

0.275

0.329

0.495

0.823

0.350

75h Percentile

498

70

26

82

1

1

0.280

0.336

0.512

0.844

0.360

Maximum Values

600

135

38

108

5

5

0.309

0.364

0.580

0.919

0.390




PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB Low OPS (The Glove)

330

72

25

89

3

0

0.288

0.320

0.360

0.680

0.330

VEB High OPS (STLSPORTSFANATIC)

600

60

32

87

2

2

0.289

0.432

0.564

0.996

0.360


Only about 20% of respondents projected Matt Adams for an OPS below .800, which would put him in the neighborhood of the 15th best offensive 1B in the Majors. And that's the very low end of his projection! It's easy to see the logic in letting Carlos Beltran go.

ADAMS20134 title=

As a new feature, here are VEB's individual projections divided up by quartile to see how optimistic/pessimistic you were. These are ranked by projected OPS.

CELEBRITY DOPPELGANGER: By a pretty fair margin, John Goodman. Probably because they are both large. You all are lazy.