St. Louis Cardinals 2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Yadier Molina

It's probably not a surprise that VEB is more bullish on Yadier Molina than the rest of the projection systems. VEB's projected OPS of .820 is 35 points higher than Steamer's .785, and VEB's projected wOBA of .354 is 12 points higher than Steamer's .342.

What is somewhat surprising is how close VEB's counting stats mirror the professional projection systems', despite wildly varying plate appearance projections. VEB projects 63 runs, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 4 SB, and 2 CS in 515 PA. The projections systems, aggregated, projects 61 R, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 5 SB, and 3 CS in 557 PA.

Let's take a look:

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Oliver	600	69	12	72	3	1	0.294	0.342	0.425	0.767	0.334
Steamer	456	51	11	55	4	3	0.293	0.346	0.439	0.785	0.342
PECOTA	626	69	14	72	8	4	0.289	0.342	0.421	0.763	0.334
ZiPS	546	54	13	73	6	3	0.293	0.342	0.433	0.775	0.334
VEB	515	63	14	74	4	2	0.306	0.356	0.465	0.820	0.354

Reorganized and sorted by value in a gorgeous infographic from Ben:

easel.ly

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Minimum Values	200	20	3	30	1	0	0.280	0.320	0.390	0.720	0.265
25th Percentile	500	60	13	70	2	1	0.300	0.345	0.450	0.800	0.350
50th Percentile*	520	62	14	74	4	2	0.307	0.355	0.469	0.820	0.356
75th Percentile	535	65	16	79	5	3	0.312	0.363	0.480	0.840	0.365
Maximum Values	600	110	20	90	9	5	0.327	0.472	0.533	0.947	0.402

*Statistical note: This is different from the VEB projection because these are medians, not means.

Now let's see who had the low and high end projections by OPS!

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
VEB Low OPS (JMedwick)	200	20	3	30	1	1	0.300	0.330	0.390	0.720	0.325
VEB High OPS (1313131313)	535	66	13	73	1	2	0.310	0.472	0.475	0.947	0.325

(I assume that the OBP there is a typo, but left it in). In retrospect, I probably should have just had everyone project the inputs for wOBA instead of estimating it, which causes problems like seen above, but I didn't want to make you all project for 20 different stats.

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And now the most important question! Who won for Celebrity Doppelganger?!

...

We have a tie! The two famous who most resemble Yadier Molina: Jose Molina and Bengie Molina!