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St. Louis Cardinals 2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Yadier Molina

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USA TODAY Sports

It's probably not a surprise that VEB is more bullish on Yadier Molina than the rest of the projection systems. VEB's projected OPS of .820 is 35 points higher than Steamer's .785, and VEB's projected wOBA of .354 is 12 points higher than Steamer's .342.

What is somewhat surprising is how close VEB's counting stats mirror the professional projection systems', despite wildly varying plate appearance projections. VEB projects 63 runs, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 4 SB, and 2 CS in 515 PA. The projections systems, aggregated, projects 61 R, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 5 SB, and 3 CS in 557 PA.

Let's take a look:


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Oliver

600

69

12

72

3

1

0.294

0.342

0.425

0.767

0.334

Steamer

456

51

11

55

4

3

0.293

0.346

0.439

0.785

0.342

PECOTA

626

69

14

72

8

4

0.289

0.342

0.421

0.763

0.334

ZiPS

546

54

13

73

6

3

0.293

0.342

0.433

0.775

0.334

VEB

515

63

14

74

4

2

0.306

0.356

0.465

0.820

0.354


Reorganized and sorted by value in a gorgeous infographic from Ben:

2014VEBProjectionsvsSpreadsheetProjectionsYadierMo title=
easel.ly

Now, let's move onto the VEB projections. Here they are divided into quartiles


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

Minimum Values

200

20

3

30

1

0

0.280

0.320

0.390

0.720

0.265

25th Percentile

500

60

13

70

2

1

0.300

0.345

0.450

0.800

0.350

50th Percentile*

520

62

14

74

4

2

0.307

0.355

0.469

0.820

0.356

75th Percentile

535

65

16

79

5

3

0.312

0.363

0.480

0.840

0.365

Maximum Values

600

110

20

90

9

5

0.327

0.472

0.533

0.947

0.402


*Statistical note: This is different from the VEB projection because these are medians, not means.

Now let's see who had the low and high end projections by OPS!


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB Low OPS (JMedwick)

200

20

3

30

1

1

0.300

0.330

0.390

0.720

0.325

VEB High OPS (1313131313)

535

66

13

73

1

2

0.310

0.472

0.475

0.947

0.325


(I assume that the OBP there is a typo, but left it in). In retrospect, I probably should have just had everyone project the inputs for wOBA instead of estimating it, which causes problems like seen above, but I didn't want to make you all project for 20 different stats.


And now the most important question! Who won for Celebrity Doppelganger?!

...

We have a tie! The two famous who most resemble Yadier Molina: Jose Molina and Bengie Molina!