2014 VEB Community Projections: Matt Carpenter

It's hard to put into words exactly how awesome Matt Carpenter was last year, but I will try. He hit .318/.392/.481 in his first season playing full-time, and also his first season playing second base. He topped the 2B wRC+ chart with 147, and rode that (along with very good baserunning and average defense) to the top of the 2B WAR chart, with 7.0. He was better than perennial All-Star candidates Robinson Cano (6.0), Dustin Pedroia (5.4), Ben Zobrist (5.4), and Chase Utley (3.9). Jason Kipnis, another young star, checked in with 4.5.

Like Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter was unheralded out of college (13th round draft pick), reached the Majors relatively late (25), has hit for a confoundingly high BABIP (.351 so far in his career), and changed positions once he got to the Majors. Unlike Craig, however, Carpenter has always walked. In 472 PA in AA, he walked 13.6% of the time. In 535 PA in AAA, he walked 15.7% of the time. So far in the Majors, he's walked 10% of the time. That means that even if his BABIP regresses to non-Ichirian levels, he'll still get on-base and use his doubles power to keep his slugging percentage high enough to keep pitchers honest.

The big question is regression. Carpenter's probably not a 7 WAR player. His .351 career BABIP is unlikely to stay that high. Hopefully, his other skills make up for that fact, but where does he ultimately settle in? Is he going to be a solid above-average regular at 3B, or is he going to be consistently in the 5-7 WAR range?

GRATUITOUS MATT CARPENTER GIF:

via assets.sbnation.com

Let us know your projections below! Stats via Fangraphs