clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

A Look at the St. Louis Cardinals' Current Playoff Odds

New, comments

Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings/Fangraphs give the Cardinals the best odds of winning the National League Central.

Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

If any fan base knows that a club's odds of making the playoffs are not determinative of their ultimate playoff fate, it is Cardinaldom. Even so, I thought we'd follow-up yesterday's post looking at the Cardinals', Pirates', and Reds' respective strength of schedule over their remaining four series with a roundup of the teams' playoff odds. As a reminder, the National League Central standings look like this after the completion of play on Sunday:


Club

Wins

Losses

Win Pct.

DIV. GB

W.C.

Run Diff.

PIT

87

62

.584

-

+12.5

+46

STL

87

62

.584

-

+12.5

+159

CIN

84

66

.560

3.5

+9.0

+98

To look at the odds of each team winning the division, the Wild Card, and making the playoffs, I'm going to used Cool Standings/Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The Cool Standings/Fangraphs playoff odds are updated very quickly and based on strength of schedule, ZiPS player projections, and Streamer player projections. Baseball Prospectus has long had a fun playoff odds report and this year is no different. BP looks at first, second, and third order wins as well as the percentage odds of various projections.

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS

Club

Wins

Losses

Playoffs

Division

Wild Card

PIT

87

62

99.9%

39.1%

60.8%

STL

87

62

99.7%

48.0%

51.8%

CIN

84

66

98.8%

12.9%

85.9%

WSH

78

70

1.5%

0.0%

1.5%

COOL STANDINGS/FANGRAPHS

Club

Wins

Losses

Playoffs

Division

Wild Card

PIT

87

62

100.0%

39.6%

60.3%

STL

87

62

100.0%

58.5%

41.4%

CIN

84

66

97.5%

1.8%

95.7%

WSH

78

70

2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

Yesterday's back-of-the-napkin schedule strength seems to be reflected to a degree in the playoff odds. Both playoff odds projection systems see the Cardinals as the favorites. This is likely because they have a very deep lineup and the easiest schedule. That being said, the scurvy Pirates care not for run differential or third-order wins. They've defied that type of gravity all season. The question is whether they can continue to fly in such a way through the season's final four series.