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If any fan base knows that a club's odds of making the playoffs are not determinative of their ultimate playoff fate, it is Cardinaldom. Even so, I thought we'd follow-up yesterday's post looking at the Cardinals', Pirates', and Reds' respective strength of schedule over their remaining four series with a roundup of the teams' playoff odds. As a reminder, the National League Central standings look like this after the completion of play on Sunday:
Club Wins Losses Win Pct. DIV. GB W.C. Run Diff. PIT 87 62 .584 - +12.5 +46 STL 87 62 .584 - +12.5 +159 CIN 84 66 .560 3.5 +9.0 +98
To look at the odds of each team winning the division, the Wild Card, and making the playoffs, I'm going to used Cool Standings/Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The Cool Standings/Fangraphs playoff odds are updated very quickly and based on strength of schedule, ZiPS player projections, and Streamer player projections. Baseball Prospectus has long had a fun playoff odds report and this year is no different. BP looks at first, second, and third order wins as well as the percentage odds of various projections.
BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Club Wins Losses Playoffs Division Wild Card PIT 87 62 99.9% 39.1% 60.8% STL 87 62 99.7% 48.0% 51.8% CIN 84 66 98.8% 12.9% 85.9% WSH 78 70 1.5% 0.0% 1.5%
COOL STANDINGS/FANGRAPHS
Club Wins Losses Playoffs Division Wild Card PIT 87 62 100.0% 39.6% 60.3% STL 87 62 100.0% 58.5% 41.4% CIN 84 66 97.5% 1.8% 95.7% WSH 78 70 2.5% 0.0% 2.5%
Yesterday's back-of-the-napkin schedule strength seems to be reflected to a degree in the playoff odds. Both playoff odds projection systems see the Cardinals as the favorites. This is likely because they have a very deep lineup and the easiest schedule. That being said, the scurvy Pirates care not for run differential or third-order wins. They've defied that type of gravity all season. The question is whether they can continue to fly in such a way through the season's final four series.