What Does ZiPS Forecast for the St. Louis Cardinals Batters?

Player	PA	HR	RBI	R	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Molina	591	12	81	63	.352	.333	.383	.479	.862	.373
Craig	588	15	108	77	.343	.302	.346	.459	.805	.349
Carpenter	616	10	55	92	.343	.299	.382	.436	.818	.360
Freese	465	10	56	51	.335	.277	.349	.406	.755	.332
Kozma	581	5	59	57	.294	.242	.292	.325	.617	.271
Holliday	635	23	87	105	.297	.275	.356	.455	.811	.351
Jay	605	8	61	79	.296	.258	.330	.356	.686	.301
Beltran	549	29	85	71	.309	.295	.348	.516	.864	.371
Adams	310	12	47	31	.332	.280	.318	.469	.787	.338
Descalso	378	6	46	49	.313	.266	.330	.401	.731	.318
Wigginton	241	4	23	29	.267	.218	.290	.324	.614	.272
Robinson	200	4	20	28	.255	.236	.322	.343	.665	.296
Cruz	150	2	16	12	.262	.213	.253	.314	.567	.249

As you can see, there are a lot of good numbers on this chart. It is not surprising that ZiPS forecasts the Cardinals' best batters to be Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, and Carlos Beltran come season's end. These three players have been the St. Louis lineup's most prolific producers to date. Nonetheless, ZiPS forecasts the trio to cool off some by season's end. This is perfectly reasonable.

The forecasts aren't all negative for Cardinals hitters. ZiPS sees a huge improvement for Ty Wigginton (here's hoping!) as well as a solid improvement from Jay (even if the end result isn't so solid). Being a pixelated projection system, ZiPS does not believe in black magiks and sees a rough rest of the season for Pete Kozma. ZiPS is also not aware of how delicious mayo is; it projects a brutal fall back to earth for Matt Adams.

For a bit more perspective, I compared the ZiPS updated 2013 end-of-season projections with where the Cardinals stood before last night's game. The following chart shows how much of an increase or decrease each player would have to produce in order for him to meet his ZiPS updated end-of-year projection.

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ZiPS UPDATED PROJECTIONS

AND JUNE 23, 2013 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS STATS

ZiPS finds it likely that Molina, Carpenter, and Beltran will see double-digit drops in production. It's important to keep in mind that ZiPS is using inputs from various seasons to project what is most likely to happen given a player's established level of production. There's no denying that Molina and Carpenter are producing at levels we haven't seen before. While Beltran is doing his smooth thing, he is aging and suffered a late-season collapse last year. Ending the season with a .370+ wOBA from Molina and Beltran with a .360 wOBA from the club's second baseman would be fantastic (even if it isn't as fantastic as the trio's April, May, and June production).

ZiPS projects Craig to see his BA and OBP drop but his SLG increase--all for no net effect on his wOBA. ZiPS forecasts a largely similar phenomenon for Freese. The projection system sees the numbers for Holliday and Jay to go up across the board, with correspondingly positive results on wOBA. ZiPS also projects a return to earth of sorts for Descalso.

The Cardinals have gotten off to a great start this season. Whether or not they can sustain their 100-win pace as a team will depend on whether individual players sustain, improve upon, or fall-off in their individual performances. It will be interesting to see whether the Cardinals can defy the forecast moving forward.