clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Matt Adams is your small sample size hero

One-eighteenth of the way into the season, Matt Adams has an outstanding set of small sample size numbers.


Matt Adams, doing part time duty, has already slugged two home runs and seven more hits in 15 PAs, which means almost nothing except that he has 9 hits in his first 15 PAs.

Still, if you're like me and harbored some concerns about whether Matt's slugging in the minors would translate in the majors, you may find his four game numbers irrationally consoling.

Speaking of which, let's look briefly at those gaudy, gaudy numbers, frivolously written out as rate numbers.

Batting average: .643

On-base percentage: .667

Slugging percentage: 1.214

OPS: 1.881

wOBA: .778

wRC+: 418

That's still pretty exciting to read, even knowing that "unsustainable" isn't even the word for someone with a .636 BABIP in 15 PAs.

In the minors, Adams pretty consistently turned in performances that ran between .390 and .415 in the way of wOBA, at each level. His slugging numbers have run from the high-500s to the mid-600s. He's been a consistent high average hitter in the minors. However, he rarely walks; last season, he walked at about a 5.5% rate, and he's never walked at a better than 8% rate. That lack of discipline sometimes signals a lack of strike zone judgment and a proclivity to be confused by elite-level pitching.

Maybe these initial numbers don't prove that Adams is the kind of guy whose minor league numbers will translate to the majors, but they sure don't hurt. And, for the moment, they're fun to enjoy.