The St. Louis Cardinals Turn to Mitchell Boggs at Closer

On Saturday morning the St. Louis Cardinals announced that incumbent closer Jason Motte underwent an MRI that revealed what Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports to be a "mild strain of the flexor tendon in his right elbow." Consequently, Motte is likely to start the season on the disabled list. Lnagosch also writes that, rather than hold a competition or play coy, manager Mike Matheny promptly announced that the club's fill-in at closer would be righthander Mitchell Boggs.

In many ways, Boggs is a prototypical closer. The 6-foot-4 Georgian boasts a repertoire that features a good ol' fashioned country hardball. His powerful sinker was amongst the speediest pitches in baseball last year. Using the Pitch F/X leaderboard at Baseball Prospectus, we can sort by those relief pitchers who threw 200 or more sinkers in 2012 and see that Boggs's sinker was the fourth-fastest of its speedball breed. If we lump sinkers and fourseamers together, Boggs's sinker comes in as having the 24th fastest average speed in MLB last year.

MLB TOP 25 PITCHES BY AVERAGE VELOCITY 2012

As you can see, the Cardinals have an embarrassment of fastball riches. Motte's fourseamer had the eighth-fastest average speed amongst big-league relievers last season. Higher still is postseason bullpenning phenom Trevor Rosenthal's fourseamer, which was the fourth-fastest speedball in the majors at an Ardolis Chapman-esque 98.71 mph average. With an average speed that of 96.53 mph, Boggs's sinking fastball rates as closer-ready. It's no wonder that it is his weapon of choice.

Using the databases available at Brooks Baseball, we see that Boggs relies on his sinker most often. The following table shows how often he throws the pitch on the first pitch, when the batter is ahead in the count, when the count is even, when he is ahead in the count, and overall. Boggs threw his sinker 52% of the time in 2012, relying on it more heavily against lefthanded batters than righties.

BOGGS 2012 SINKER USAGE

Even with its combination of velocity and sink, Boggs's sinker is not a swing-and-miss pitch to the degree one might expect. Boggs induced a whiff from the opposing hitter on just 10.53% of his 2012 sinkers. This is a rate that ranked 64th amongst relievers who threw 200 or more sinkers last year. If we combine fourseamers and sinkers, Boggs's sinker had the 214th highest whiff rate. For comparison, Motte induced a swing-and-miss on 29.76% of the fourseamers he threw, a rate that ranked 12th overall amongst relievers. Rosenthal's 29.43% four-seam-fastball whiff rate ranks 14th. Boggs's sinking fastball isn't as fuego as his Cardinals bullpen-mates' four-seamers. It's no wonder that, when ahead in the count, Boggs prefers to use his offspeed offerings.

Boggs has a good slider that one scouting report described as "wipeout" when he was but a fledgling Redbird. However, it's more tubular against righties than lefties. Boggs consequently uses his slider most often when ahead against righthanders. While the Georgian will deploy the breaking pitch against righthanders, he throws it less often against than his sinker when ahead in the count.

BOGGS 2012 SLIDER USAGE

Last season, Boggs resurrected a pitch that has alternatively been described as a splitter and changeup. For what it's worth, Brooks Baseball classifies it as a change. The rationale was that Boggs needed a weapon to neutralize lefthanded batters. Interestingly, according to Brooks, Boggs only used his changeup/splitter against lefthanded batsmen last year.

BOGGS 2012 CHANGEUP/SPLITTER USAGE

Boggs will also mix in what Brooks classifies as a fourseamer. He sprinkles it in against lefties and uses it most often against righties. He only threw the fourseamer 171 times in 2012, averaging 96.85 mph and inducing swinging strikes at a 23.53% (which ranks 69th amongst relievers who threw 100 or more four-seam speedballs last year).

BOGGS 2012 FOURSEAMER USAGE

Despite a hard sinking fastball and good secondary offerings, Boggs simply doesn't generate many empty swings or K's. Instead, he induces grounders at a high rate.

2012 BOGGS vs. MLB RELIEVER AVERAGE

Even though Boggs had a career year in 2012, Boggs still induced a below-average number of whiffs and strikeouts. It continued a career-loong trend of his strikeouts never matching up with his repertoire. And so the Cardinals find themselves turning to a pitch-to-contact closer of sorts as they seek to replace the flame-throwing K machine Motte.