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game 12-squared: STL @ LAD - 9.13.12

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josh beckett

ERA 5.05

FIP 4.19

xFIP 4.30

SIERA 4.22

K% 17.8%

BB% 7.2%

GB% 40.9%

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lance lynn

ERA 4.04

FIP 3.59

xFIP 3.72

SIERA 3.68

K% 23.3%

BB% 8.9%

GB% 44.8%

it's a competition of unloved starters. josh beckett has had declining stats for several years, which is a terrible combination with an expensive contract and maybe the most neurotic baseball city in america. now, he's in los angeles, whose club seems to be a never-ending font of money and where no one cares at all about baseball, which is pretty much perfect. at his peak, beckett's fastball averaged around 94 mph. his velocity ebbed down towards 93 mph in 2010 and 2011, and suddenly dropped to 91.7 this season. not surprisingly, he doesn't strike nearly as many guys out as he once did.

you may see a dead cat bounce out of the guy as he adjusts to the NL West from the AL East, but it's highly likely this guy is headed down the same road as a lot of other starting pitchers who suddenly lose 1.5 mph off their fastball; early retirement.

the bloom is sure off the fans' rose for lance lynn. a series of terrible starts got him booted to the bullpen; today, he returns to the rotation for the first time in weeks, subbing in for jake westbrook (oblique). while he enjoyed a lengthy honeymoon in his MLB debut as a starter, including an All-Star appearance, he would be well-served to put on a good show today. popular theories as to his malperformance have included fatigue and a lapse into bad mechanics. let's see if his stint in the bullpen has fixed what ails him.

i don't know if lance lynn will put on a good show for us tonight, but i can tell you i'd rather be the team with a 25-year-old coming off a bad month than the team with the overpaid, declining 32-year-old.