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A Look at the Wild Card Contenders' Remaining Schedules

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Saturday's blowout loss to the Reds in Cincinnati lowered the Cardinals' playoff odds from 75 percent to 62.6 percent, according to the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report. Baseball Prospectus gives the Cardinals a 4.4 percent chance of winning the Central division title and a 58.2 percent chance of securing a berth in the Wild Card game. With the 2011 still fresh in our memories, it's each to scoff at such odds and declare them well within this team's reach. The Cardinals' odds today are much better than Lloyd Christmas's with Mary Swanson and would increase with a win today. Even so, this is a team fighting for a Wild Card spot, not a division title.

Today I thought we might take a look at the Wild Card standings and the remaining schedules for the Wild Card contenders. Entering play today, here are the National League Wild Card standings:

Club

Wins

Losses

Winning %

Games Back

Homefield GB

Braves

72

55

.567

-

-

Cardinals

69

57

.548

-

2.5

Dodgers

69

58

.543

0.5

3.0

Pirates

68

58

.540

1.0

3.5

Diamondbacks

64

63

.504

5.5

8.0

Here are the five primary Wild Card contenders' remaining schedules, including today.

DIAMONDBACKS

OPPONENT

GAMES

W/L

WIN %

RUN DIFF.

1st WIN %

2nd WIN %

3rd WIN %

Giants

9

71-56

.559

+32

.533

.530

.526

Reds

3

77-51

.602

+77

.567

.552

.537

Rockies

4

51-74

.408

-105

.421

.400

.402

Padres

7

58-70

.453

-55

.452

.460

.451

Dodgers

6

69-58

.543

+44

.540

.529

.524

Cubs

3

48-77

.315

-101

.348

.348

.349


PIRATES

OPPONENT

GAMES

W/L

WIN %

RUN DIFF.

1st WIN %

2nd WIN %

3rd WIN %

Cardinals

3

69-57

.548

+120

.599

.600

.580

Astros

6

40-87

.315

-186

.348

.348

.349

Reds

6

77-51

.602

+77

.567

.552

.537

Mets

4

58-69

.457

-41

.466

.498

.508

Braves

3

72-55

.567

+84

.572

.558

.558

Brewers

7

58-67

.464

-10

.411

.387

.389

Cubs

7

44-69

.389

-101

.410

.380

.387


DODGERS

OPPONENT

GAMES

W/L

WIN %

RUN DIFF.

1st W/L

2nd W/L

3rd W/L

Marlins

1

57-71

.445

-101

.414

.426

.429

Rockies

6

51-74

.408

-105

.421

.400

.402

Diamondbacks

6

64-63

.504

+32

.527

.521

.516

Padres

6

58-70

.453

-55

.452

.460

.451

Giants

6

71-56

.559

+32

.533

.530

.526

Cardinals

4

69-57

.548

+120

.599

.600

.580

Nationals

3

77-49

.611

+104

.594

.600

.586

Reds

3

77-51

.602

+77

.567

.552

.537


BRAVES

OPPONENT

GAMES

W/L

WIN %

RUN DIFF.

1st W/L

2nd W/L

3rd W/L

Giants

1

71-56

.559

+38

.533

.530

.526

Padres

3

58-70

.453

-55

.452

.460

.451

Phillies

6

60-67

.472

-27

Rockies

4

51-74

.408

-105

.421

.400

.402

Mets

6

58-69

.457

-41

.466

.498

.508

Brewers

3

58-67

.464

-10

.492

.494

.476

Nationals

3

77-49

.611

+104

.594

.600

.586

Marlins

4

57-71

.445

-100

.414

.426

.429

Pirates

3

68-58

.540

+18

.516

.510

.496


CARDINALS

OPPONENT

GAMES

W/L

WIN %

RUN DIFF.

1st WIN %

2nd WIN %

3rd WIN %

Pirates

3

68-58

.540

+18

.516

.510

.496

Astros

6

40-87

.315

-186

.348

.348

.349

Reds

4

77-51

.602

+77

.567

.552

.537

Nationals

7

77-40

.611

+104

.594

.600

.586

Mets

3

58-69

.457

-41

.466

.498

.508

Brewers

3

58-67

.464

-10

.411

.387

.389

Padres

3

58-70

.453

-55

.452

.460

.451

Dodgers

4

69-58

.543

+44

.540

.529

.524

Cubs

3

48-77

.315

-101

.348

.348

.349


**ADDENDUM**

Folks have asked for a total column, which triggered a thought in my head. How would one go about weighting the remaining schedules of the Wild Card contenders to reflect the relative strength of each? This is not very thorough or comprehensive, but it occurred to me just now so I went through and calculated a schedule weight by multiplying the opponents' respective run differentials by the number of games remaining against each. Here are the results:

Team

Schedule Weight

Dodgers

-93

Diamondbacks

-325

Cardinals

-471

Pirates

-983

Dodgers

-1,019