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game 3: STL @ MIL, april 7, 2012 - wainwright v. greinke

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adam wainwright

2010 statistics

ERA - 2.42

FIP - 2.86

xFIP - 3.02

K/9 - 8.32

BB/9 - 2.19

GB % - 51.6%

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zach greinke

2011 statistics

ERA - 3.83

FIP - 2.98

xFIP - 2.56

K/9 - 10.54

BB/9 - 2.36

GB % - 47.3%

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zack greinke got more than a little bit unlucky last year, with an ERA almost a full point worse than his FIP, and more than a point worse than his xFIP. he had an unlucky LOB rate - 69.8% - and a modestly unlucky BABIP - .318 vs. a lifetime .308 BABIP against. he also gave up a ton of home runs - 13.8% HR/FB vs. a career 9.0%. he looks ready to regress in a positive direction. just seeing that strikeout rate gives me chills. he's an excellent pitcher and probably as good a candidate as any for the NL cy young award.

adam, well, he's not too shabby either. his most concerning statistic is the one right at the top: these are his 2010 statistics, not his 2011 stats. in fairness, his 0.00 ERA led the league in 2011. it's hard to predict quite the same success for a guy coming off TJ surgery, but wainwright is fundamentally a pitcher with the kind of excellence greinke has.