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game 21: MIL @ STL - 4.28.12

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kyle lohse

ERA 0.99

FIP 2.16

xFIP 3.71

K/9 5.27

BB/9 0.66

GB 44.9%

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marco estrada

ERA 2.45

FIP 3.17

xFIP 1.92

K/9 13.09

BB/9 2.45

GB 34.9%

everything is falling kyle lohse's way - a lucky BABIP (.200), no home runs allowed (yet), and a great LOB rate (85%). he does have a walk rate far below his norm (career 2.66 BB/9). otherwise, he's pretty much the same guy as always. he's going to regress. but that 3.71 xFIP looks fine; if he stays healthy, he'll regress to a pretty decent #3 pitcher status.

sadly, estrada appears to be a pretty good pitcher, too. he won't sustain this astonishing K rate, most likely, but he's likely to regress to a pretty decent level (ZIPS projects a 3.68 FIP for the rest of the season). note that he is in the midst of a swing man transition, appearing five times in relief, and making only his first start of the season on the 21st, striking out 9 in five innings against colorado. he's suffered some bad home run luck, with a 22% HR/FB rate; he's also benefiting from a 97% strand rate and a .236 BABIP, so don't feel too badly for him.

the brewers have a trio of fine starters, whose stats are being dragged down by bad relievers and poor performances at the back end of the rotation. despite bringing greinke, marcum, and gallardo at the top of their rotation, the brewers are seventh worst by pitching WAR in the majors; randy wolf and now-DL'd chris narveson have struggled to keep up their end of things.