after posting two straight seasons with ERA's significantly less than his FIP, arroyo became a candidate for those who distrust FIP or sabermetrics to claim that arroyo somehow defied FIP by the way he pitched, whether it was his clutch pitching or his groundball rate or veteranny goodness and creamy middle. so far this season, he has a 5.53 FIP and a 5.58 ERA. his xFIP is much lower, suggesting that much of his trouble is the long ball.
honestly, i'm not sure how any pitcher who pitches 15-18 games at GABP could not have a serious HR problem.