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Edwin Jackson in Arlington scares me to no end. I've never grown comfortable with Jackson on the mound in much the same way that Kyle Lohse (sans 2008) seems like an inevitable implosion. One interesting tidbit about Jackson, for which I have no real explanation, is the diminished use of his fastball. Despite having velocity in the mid-90s, Jackson has, for the third consecutive year, decreased his fastball usage to the lowest levels of his career.
Historically, the linear weights by pitch type suggest that Jackson gets beat up on his fastball. So, perhaps, this is a change for the best. In Arlington, as tom s. pointed out yesterday, balls fly out of the park with a higher degree of regularity than any other ballpark. Edwin Jackson in that kind of run environment doesn't give me the warm fuzzies.
Derek Holland, for his part, is probably not appreciably better than Edwin Jackson. Holland isn't a soft tosser and his changeup is functional but not terribly impressive. While guys like Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday can plague any pitcher, watch how David Freese and Allen Craig are able to cope with Holland's offspeed stuff. That should give you a good idea of where the Cardinals offense is headed in this game.