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cubs v. cardinals, 9.25.10, or how saturday noon games kick my butt

3610_medium 30947_medium


chris carpenter casey coleman


3.28 ERA 5.02

3.70 FIP 4.70

3.75 xFIP 5.35

3.69 tERA 4.73

51.1% GB 51.0%


you know, i had high hopes for today, till i saw game time. 


schu, 2b

jay, RF

pujols, 1b

holliday, LF

rasmus, CF

descalso, 3b

ryan, ss

anderson, c

carpenter, p

seeing anderson in the lineup gives me a little bit of hope. 

i had been going to take a look at our bullpen as a whole and individually. the bullpen was a big concern for many, but has quietly done fine, though not great.

some quick and dirty stats: 

in WAR, our bullpen ranks 16th among ML teams. i wonder how much of that is just a lack of innings, since we rank 7th overall in FIP (3.88). we are in the low-middle ranks for both WPA and WPA/LI.

our bullpen, individually has no real stars, but a bunch of solid performers. our best reliever by FIP is . . . aaron miles. then, jason motte (3.38 FIP, 9.24 K/9, 3.08 BB/9) comes closest to being a really solid reliever for the team. ryan franklin continues to be a hugely weird pitcher -- he's second among regular relievers with a 3.86 FIP, a low K rate (5.86 k/9) and even lower walk rate (1.17 bb.9). whatever franklin is doing, he's making it work.

boggs follows close behind (3.91 FIP), but doesn't have nearly the strikeouts you'd think a guy throwing 95, 96, 97 should (6.68). his walks are much better than earlier efforts -- 3.34 bb/9. salas follows him with a 4.02 FIP; he was actually the second-best on the relief corps for strikeouts after motte - 8.31 k/9, but he needs to work on his control -which had been a real talent of his in the minors - next season (3.81 bb/9). having an elevated walk rate in a rookie year seems to be pretty standard while making the big league adjustment. a little more experience, and he may be one of the best pieces in the bullpen.

k-mac was fine, with middle of the road stats. both our loogies came in a virtual tie for FIP - reyes at 4.15 and miller at 4.21. skip ottavino given his few performances. macdougal pulled out a better FIP than i would have thought (4.37), but that 5.74 bb/9 does not fly anywhere. hawksworth had a bad FIP (5.18), but a normal HR rate would shave that down a whole run (xFIP 4.12). i'm not sure that he's a longterm anything for st. louis, but we'll see what he looks like in spring training.