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game 6 open thread - stl @ mil

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Carpenter_chris_medium Wolf_randy_medium

chris carpenter                 randy wolf

xFIP - 3.27                      xFIP - 1.53

              cy young awards: 1            cy young awards: 0


the cardinals face a left-hander today. i think our troubles of yesteryear may be gone with the disappearance of the left-handed outfield of doom and the left-handed-third-baseman-who-wouldn't-really-have-been-adequate-with-a-platoon-partner-but-it would-have-at-least-put-some-variety-in-the-suck. albert pujols historically hits lefties just fine, thank-you-very-much, and has had success against wolf (and i hate small sample size like this but here goes), with albert going 5-16 against him, felipe lopez 7-21, and matt holliday 5-16. if anything soothes me about the above small sample sizes, these guys basically all hit lefties as well as righties or better (career wOBA's of .457, .329, .378 against LHP), as do yadi (.326) and brendan ryan (.317). ryan ludwick's reverse split still holds, oddly enough - .336 wOBA v. LHP and .367 v. RHP, even after 645 PA's v. lefties and 1200+ v. righties (today might not have been a bad day to give luddy a rest and start craig in RF). throw in mather and freese, and sinister pitchers shouldn't seem so sinister in 2010.

randy wolf's 2009 is interesting and reads like a bit of a mirage. he did pretty much what he does every year - strikes out a few (6-7/9IP) walks not too many (2.5-3.5/9IP). doesn't get a ton of groundballs (38-40%). he benefited from a fair amount of luck on LOB% (77% v. lifetime 73.5%) and BABIP (.257 v. lifetime .294). he's still a good pitcher, but his 2010 is likely to show some regression. 

stl lineup

lopez 2b

ludwick rf

pujols 1b

holliday lf

molina c

freese 3b

mather cf

ryan ss

carpenter p


mil lineup

weeks 2b

edmonds cf

braun lf

fielder 1b

mcgehee 3b

hart, hart to rf

kottaras, welcome back c

escobar ss

wolf, hungry like the p