before we get into the discussion, can i say what a great postseason this is (notwithstanding the enormous problem that the cards are not in it)? watching halladay, lee, and lincecum pitch like the aces they are is amazing. i feel energized even though my team is out of the running.
other than maybe mark mulder, there hasn't been a problem as perplexing for st. louis as the infield in the last five years. perennially changing, perennially underperforming, the temporary fill-ins at second and shortstop, the walking wounded and emotionally troubled at third, the journeyman utility players, and the endlessly returning aaron miles have vexed this club season after season in a line stretching from albert pujols's right hand to the other foul line.
2011 promises nothing particularly different.
the free agent class is, on the whole, putrid in 2011. let's look at what little there is for free agents and for reasonable trade options.
let's dispose of one thing off the bat -- adrian beltre is not walking through that door. he made $10m in 2010 and will make more next year in free agency, for several years. i'd love him. we're not getting him.
the trades
here's a name that's cropped up several times. stephen drew (27). he's entering his 2nd arb year. he made $3.4m in 2010, avoiding arb. he'll make more this year. he's a great player for arizona, who will be worth much more than the d-backs pay for him in 2011. i really don't see the cards nabbing him, with any package we're likely to put together that doesn't involve colby rasmus. and that would be stupid.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
663 |
.353 |
2.2 |
|
2009 |
595 |
.321 |
2.1 |
|
2010 |
633 |
.354 |
5.1 |
drew isn't a 5 win player going forward, but he could be a 3-4 win player at a tough-to-fill spot. wild card: can tony play nice with another drew boy? his rep would definitely precede him with stephen.
on the right side of the diamond in phoenix is kelly johnson (28). he's entering his third arb year after making $2.35m last year.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
614 |
.346 |
2.6 |
|
2009 |
346 |
.306 |
0.6 |
|
2010 |
671 |
.377 |
6.0 |
his 2010 was ridiculously lucky, playing well in a batter-friendly stadium. realistically, he's a 2 win player at 2b going forward. see the analysis above for drew.
a very interesting name that's gotten no play is marco scutaro (35). he's signed by the sox through 2011 ($5m), with a complex 2012 option - $6m team, $3m player, $1.5m buyout.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
592 |
.354 |
3.1 |
|
2009 |
680 |
.319 |
4.3 |
|
2010 |
695 |
.320 |
2.2 |
note that scutaro has been more valuable (in the AL East) than stephen drew, on balance. scutaro is under contract to the red sox. while the sox could keep him around as a backup/utility, i wonder if they might be willing to move him given their success with . . . .
jed lowrie (26) - he'll be hitting his first arb year and he'll be a huge value, managing 1.7 WAR in a third of a season this year.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
306 |
.326 |
1.9 |
|
2009 |
76 |
.212 |
-0.2 |
|
2010 |
197 |
.393 |
1.7 |
provided he stays healthy, that is. he's boston's david freese except he hits better at a more defensively challenging spot. there's no guaranteeing that boston gives up either lowrie or scutaro, but if we can tempt them with, say, a catcher (anderson), a reliever or two, and an outfielder . . . . i could see them giving up scutaro. he's older, more expensive, and only okay defensively, especially at short where he is a clear negative. scutaro seems like a nice fit at second in st. louis. it's unlikely that boston decides that lowrie is too much of an injury risk that they trade him and keep scutaro; lowrie is included more as an illustration. that said, i'd take him in a hot minute if they were offering.
the free agents and non-tenders
an easier get is free agent j.j. hardy (28). we just have to spend some money on him.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
629 |
.355 |
4.9 |
|
2009 |
465 |
.292 |
1.4 |
|
2010 |
375 |
.313 |
2.4 |
he made $5.1M last year. he could do a little better this year, but $5m seems about right. hardy is probably the best shortstop defensively of this bunch (career UZR/150 at short of 11.0). i think i'd still prefer boog at short and look at hardy at second, but a boog-hardy infield would definitely pass muster with the groundballing staff, whatever order you put them in. offensively, i think we're seeing more of the real hardy in the past two seasons. his seasons of highest offensive production in MIL were marked by unreasonably high HR/FB rates. i suspect he's more a 2-3 win player going forward, worth the $5m investment and then some.
mark ellis (33) is an interesting option - one of the older options, like scutaro. he's got a $6.5m club option with the A's, with a $500k buyout. he made $5.5m last year.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
507 |
.314 |
2.9 |
|
2009 |
410 |
.310 |
1.2 |
|
2010 |
492 |
.326 |
3.2 |
imagining myself billy beane, i'm trying to decide if i non-tender him, or if i take up the option then deal him in june. i think i probably do the latter and milk him for all he's worth. if he's non-tendered, he's expensive like hardy, but not absurdly so. probably a good buy, though his health gives me a little concern.
now we come to a perennial tony favorite. miguel tejada (36) is the old man of the group. he's a free agent who made $6m last year, barely what he was worth.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
666 |
.313 |
3.3 |
|
2009 |
674 |
.344 |
2.8 |
|
2010 |
681 |
.306 |
1.4 |
i doubt there's much left to tejada. he strikes me as the kind of guy who could go downhill real fast. i also am concerned that 3b may be the only place for him right now. you do have to grant that he's been very durable, putting together more PAs than anybody else on this list in the last three years. and he could be the tony womack in the group who puts together a swan song season. maybe he hits 25 hr in 2011, but i doubt it. more likely he's a 1-2 win player who is limited in the field.
speaking of old and limited in the field, orlando hudson (33) is not all he's cracked up to be. he's a free agent and made $5m last year. while i believe he's type A, the good people at cot's tell us the twins agree not to offer arb to him.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
435 |
.358 |
1.5 |
|
2009 |
659 |
.342 |
2.9 |
|
2010 |
559 |
.320 |
3.2 |
his WAR totals look like a mirror image of tejada's. his most recent numbers are deceptive, based in large part on a 10.4 UZR in 2010, after four straight seasons of negative numbers there. his earlier offensive numbers are propped up by uncharacteristic BABIPs. he's a 2 WAR guy who will be fairly expensive and who doesn't stay on the field very well. he'd probably be worth his salary, but i don't like him much compared to this crowd.
bringing up the rear is jhonny peralta (28) who has a club option for $7m, which detroit will almost certainly decline. he made $4.6m this year.
|
Year |
PA |
wOBA |
WAR |
|
2008 |
664 |
.347 |
3.9 |
|
2009 |
645 |
.304 |
1.2 |
|
2010 |
615 |
.309 |
1.4 |
he's a felipe lopez type who i would not mind provided we could get him for felipe lopez money. his offense has been declining as he's lost his plate discipline, culminating in a 31% out of zone swing rate this season. he's not very good at defense at short and shows signs of not being very good at third either.
someone smarter than me can line up all the potential trade matchups. my gut is that none of these trades get done, though a trade for scutaro doesn't strike me as crazy. more likely we pick up some tolerable free agent/non-tender on the order of $5-6m for second or shortstop or third (hardy, ellis, tejada, hudson). probably all of those guys are plausible 2 win types, which make them cost-effective, if not bargains. once we plunk that money down - provided we put the same or more down on westbrook, and pujols gets a raise - that's going to be a real good piece of our 2010 budget accounted for.
how do they line up with our internal prospects? my very rough estimates are that skip and descalso look like 1 win over a season at second, assuming normal luck. ryan's value is terribly babip driven, but on balance he's likely about 2 wins at short. tyler greene i am beginning to sour on - while a better option than miles or feliz, he has not shown signs of translating his minor league performance to the majors. he's 27 now - it's time for that talent to manifest. i am also frankly concerned that he hasn't logged a positive reading on fielding metrics in the majors or minors for the last (i think) three seasons (i am lost with minorleaguesplits.com being down). i think he's a little better than replacement, though his ceiling is clearly higher. most of the players above would be meaningful improvements on the internal options at second, and would offer little value over brendan ryan at short.