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Cards community WAR project -- pitcher edition

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The votes are in and have been tallied for the first wave of results for our community projections. 30/50/70 are Chone’s 30%, 50%, and 70% projections.
result
Yadi 50
Pujols 70
Kennedy 70
Greene 70
Glaus 50
Ludwick 70
Ankiel 70
Skip 50
Rasmus 70

Some of this surprises me – that we don't, as a community, expect any Cardinal regular to underperform his projections; that we think that Kennedy will overperform his projections; that, given Glaus’s injury, we think he will meet them; that nobody – not 1 member thought that Albert might underperform his projections; that only 2 members thought Khalil Greene would; and that only 3 people thought Rasmus would underperform.

I found Rasmus’ projection particularly interesting. By all accounts, Colby is an excellent defensive player – probably worth 1 WAR just w/ his defense in CF. His 50% projection has him worth about another win and a half above replacement so that 50% projection probably makes him a league-average player, considering his strong defense, or better even w/ what appears to be fairly paltry offensive numbers. The point is that a season like the one Chone projects for Rasmus’ rookie campaign would be a pretty good one. Hitting his 70% projection, with a +5 or +10 defense probably puts him among the top 4-5 CFs in baseball – as a rookie. Now, there are few who are bigger Rasmus fans than I, and I hope he could hit that mark, but for his first season – we may be overreaching a little.

Now we’re on to the pitchers and we’re going to do it the same way. Below are the 50% projections for most of the pitchers projected to be part of the Cards’ staff at one time or another. In addition to deciding over,under,50 for each, the last category will be for the # of innings we expect to get from Carp. You’ll see that Chone has him projected for 85. First, select Carp’s 30/50/70% projection based on rates and then give me a number for his ’09 innings. We’ll go with Wainer,Lohse,Welley,Pineiro,Boggs,KMac,Franklin,Motte,Perez,Miller,Thompson,Kinney,Carp,Carp’s innings

As always, comma-delimited, no spaces. Thanks a bunch.

W L IP H BB SO HR ERA
Wainer 8 6 124 123 36 85 11 3.77
Lohse 10 9 170 186 48 106 17 4.29
Welley 6 7 117 118 45 82 15 4.38
Pineiro 7 8 131 151 36 74 17 4.74
Boggs 7 8 138 145 67 87 18 4.89
KMac 4 3 60 59 21 49 5 3.90
Franklin 4 4 70 73 24 43 7 4.24
Motte 4 3 60 49 25 72 7 3.45
Perez 3 3 55 46 31 61 6 3.76
Miller 3 2 42 36 18 40 4 3.64
Thompson 3 3 61 66 18 35 6 4.28
Kinney 2 2 52 49 23 45 5 3.98
Carp 5 4 85 85 24 61 7 3.71

Interestingly, Chone’s done projections for a ton of pitchers but not one for Josh Kinney so I went ahead and used his ZIPS projection. It doesn’t list his 30% or 70% projection but you all can decide if you think Kinney will outperform or underperform his ZIPS projection. Also, I would caution you against getting hung up on those IP numbers and immediately select "over" for everyone. Pay more attention to the rates – bb/9, k/9, hr/9 and, especially era. When looking at their 30 and 70% projections look at the rates – even Wainwright’s 70% projection only has him at 130 innings. Erik can play w/ the innings numbers after he gets your projections for the rates – so use the rates as a baseline and we’ll get the innings numbers figured out.

Lastly, don’t forget a projection on Carp’s innings only. We’ve got no idea where to begin with him.