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Cards' community WAR project

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Sky Kalkman over at BtB is putting together a Community WAR project (see Sky’s "best practices" post here for another reference) and erik (of play a hard nine fame) has agreed to spearhead the Cardinal project. He’s asked me to help him out since we have a larger community (and pretty intelligent one as well) and so I thought we’d take today, and maybe another day or two, to put together some of our own projections and help create this spreadsheet together.

Because this is meant to be a community projection project, we need to see how you think each Cardinal player (or, at least, each regular) is going to perform in ’09. Erik’s going to use the Chone projections to help him but we wanted to poll the VEB members to see which players you thought would outperform, and which you thought might under perform, those Chone projections..

Below are the 50% (the weighted mean) projections for Cardinal regulars and possible regulars for 2009.

Yadi 400 8 53 33 35 .272 .333 .390
Pujols 535 37 111 100 56 .327 .438 .604
Kennedy 380 4 37 31 54 .263 .324 .355
K. Greene 458 18 67 32 98 .251 .304 .430
Glaus 490 27 84 83 111 .259 .370 .478
Ludwick 453 25 78 47 126 .267 .344 .499
Ankiel 446 25 85 39 111 .253 .319 .475
Skip 456 7 39 37 61 .285 .341 .395
Rasmus 455 14 56 58 111 .246 .349 .398

As I said, these are all Chone’s 50% projections (middle of the road, so to speak) for each player. What we want to find out is if you think each player will meet these projections, over-perform the projections, or under-perform the projections. If you vote for "over-performing," erik’s gonna go w/ the player’s 70% projection. If you feel he’s going to "under-perform," erik’s gonna go w/ the player’s 30% projection. Obviously, if you vote for the 50% projection, that’s what he’ll go with.

Now, it’s entirely possible that the math in terms of PA’s may not work out, particularly in the OF, based on our votes. I presume, and I haven’t discussed this w/ erik specifically, but I’m guessing that he’ll change the number of PAs to fit what’s realistic and adjust HR and RBI, respectively. The rate stats shouldn’t change at all. When it’s all said and done, we’ll have helped to create a community projection spreadsheet for the team that predicts each player’s, and therefore the entire team’s performance for the season. We’ll be able to see how many wins we, as a community, projected for the team. It’s a pretty cool idea, really. Thanks a lot to Sky for putting this together and for erik for bringing it to us.

Obviously, today we’re going to do hitters. Here is the link to the Cards’ hitters’ page for Chone’s projections. To check out each player’s 30% and 70% projections (as well as all the others) click the link that reads "expanded" on the far right side. You’ll see the best case scenario, the worst case scenario, and everything in between. Saturday, I’ll report what you come up with and we’ll do the pitchers.

In order to do this, we’re going to do this the way we do all our projections – comma-delimited w/ NO SPACES! Thanks, as always, to all of you who keep everybody on track. I’m not used to not using spaces after commas, either. Select 50 (for 50%), over (for 70) or under (for 30) and we’ll do it by player from Yadi to Colby as listed above.


Yours might look like – over,50,under,50,50,over,50,under,over – or something like that. Thanks for all your help. I can’t wait to see the final results.

In other news…well…there’s not much. Bernie’s 5 minute take from Tuesday is a pretty interesting read, as he interviewed Duncan the elder. For one thing, Dunc’s opinion has changed on Carp – he now expects to get quite a bit out of him. This will be important as we seek your opinions on Carp’s IP Saturday. Dunc even anticipates Carp will be in the opening day rotation.

He envisions Motte and Perez as part of a closer-by-committee along w/ Franklin (yuck!) and Trever Miller and, interestingly, sees either Motte or Perez as the closer of the future – beginning probably in 2010. Pineiro will be better (I’ll believe it when I see it) and he’s expecting big things from Josh Kinney (see: Pineiro, Joel). It’s not that I don’t like Kinney. It’s that he has 32 career major league innings and has thrown fewer than 11 innings in the last 2 seasons. He’s good when he pitches, but…Also, Kyle McClellan’s going to prepare to be a starter and he likes Mitch Boggs. After what’s been a month or so of angst among Cardinal nation, it’s good to read some good news for a change, huh?

Remember – comma-delimited, no spaces. Thanks.