FanPost

October Lore: One In A Million


For baseball, October is the month of eternity. While a plate appearance in June will often become swallowed up in and forgotten amongst the thousands of other batter-vs.-pitcher confrontations over the course of the marathon 162-game regular season, each postseason pitch offers those involved a chance at heroism and at infamy. For every Kirk Gibson, there is a Carlos Beltran. For every Jim Edmonds, there is a Bill Buckner. For every Mariano Rivera (pick one), there is a Mariano Rivera (blown save and loss in Game 7 of the '01 World Series).

The game of baseball, more than any other sport, places individual players on an island, which shines a spotlight on their individual successes and failures. This unique stage enshrines in our collective consciousness heroes and goats as each October triumph and heartbreak for a team and its fans is the product of players coming through or failing, largely while acting alone, right before our very eyes.

These successes and failures are made all the more memorable by their improbability. It adds to both their enjoyment and anguish. As we all know, the best hitter in a given season, on average, will make an out at least sixty-five out of every one hundred times he digs into the box. This means that, in those most hand-wringing of situations, even the greatest hitters have the odds that they will come through stacked against them.

Now let us move to Cardinal October Lore, and the improbable feats that gave birth to a Cardinal hero and a Cardinal goat.

"GO CRAZY, FOLKS! GO CRAZY!"

Ozzie Smith will never be known first for his bat. Even if his offensive skill is underrated, he is known as "The Wizard" because of otherworldly skill as a defensive shortstop. For his career, Ozzie hit .262/.337/.328 for an OPS of .666 overall. He managed only 28 home runs in 10,778 PAs. That is one homer per every 384.9 PAs. Think about that for a moment; in let it sink. Now introduce these figures to your doubtlessly already-blown mind. Ozzie hit 23 of his 28 homers from the righthanded batter's box, only hitting 5 dingers (to use the new hitting coach's term of choice) in his 7,183 PAs from the lefthanded side of the plate. That is one homer for every 1,436 PAs.

In 1985,the Cardinals squared off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. The clubs split the first four games, making the series knotted up at 2 games each, and setting the stage for a dramatic and pivotal Game 5 in the astroturfed Busch Stadium. The Cardinals struck first, plating 2 runs in the bottom of the first when Tommy Herr's double plated Willie McGee and the Wizard. In the top of the fourth, the Dodgers tied the game on a Madlock homer. The series, and the game, would remain deadlocked at two into the ninth inning.

Right Dodger reliever Tom Niedenfuer took the ball for the visitors. That season, he had amassed 104 strikeouts to just 24 walks while earning 19 saves and posting a 2.61 ERA. The hulking righty stood at 6'5" and retired Willie McGee on a pop out to third base. In stepped Ozzie Smith, batting left-handed, something during which he had never, up to that point in his MLB career, hit a home run while doing. Niedenfuer, who had allowed 6 home runs in 106.1 IP, worked ahead in the count to the Wizard, 1-2. The mustachioed righty went down and in with a fastball and Ozzie swung his way into eternity, yanking the heater just barely over the right field wall. Over the joyous explosion of the Cardinal faithful, Jack Buck lent his legendary call.

"I LOST IT IN THE LIGHTS"

Matt Holliday was the apple of TLR's eye, the Proven Veteran who could actually protect Albert Pujols such that opposing pitchers would be forced to pitch the National League's perennial MVP. At the trading deadline, Cardinal GM John Mozeliak made TLR's dream a reality and traded a handful of prospects, including the Cardinals' top hitting prospect, for the now-Oakland A's left fielder. Holliday took the National League by storm upon re-joining it and contributed to the Cardinals' runaway division title.

Matt Holliday has played left field throughout most of his time in the big leagues. He has established himself as an above-average defenderat the the position, posting a UZR/150 of 6.2 for his career. In 6 seasons, Holliday has been given 31 errors in 7,267.1 innings. Of those 31 errors, 24 occurred on a fielding opportunity. A runner reached base due to one of Holliday's errors on 6 occasions. So, a runner reached base because of a Holliday error once every 1,211 innings Holliday plays in the field.

There were two outs in the pivotal Game 2 of the NLDS versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chris Carpenter was less than stellar in his opening game loss and Adam Wainwright was magnificent in Game 2, handing over a 2-1 lead in the ninth to closer Ryan Franklin. After record two outs, Franklin gave up a fly-ball to left field, which Holliday seemed to track, only to misplay the flyball as it fell toward the outfield grass, deflecting off his body. The Dodgers would go on to score two runs in the inning, both unearned, and take a commanding 2-0 series lead before completing the sweep in St. Louis two days later. Over the bitter gasps and moans of Cardinal fans, Mike Shannon and Vin Scully called the play (and both can be heard on the MLB.com link above).

OCTOBER HISTORY

Whether it was the jubilation felt upon Ozzie's homer or the stomach-punch of Holliday's blunder, is it any wonder that ballplayers and coaches often talk of the Gods of Baseball? How is it that such long-shot occurrences take place at moments when seasons hang in the balance, where a home run or a dropped fly-ball mean exponentially more to a team's fortunes than they would on a cold April evening or a sweltering July afternoon? Of course, we will never know. But, for me, it shows that the postseason hinges on luck as much as skill and only cements my habit, since childhood, of wearing my "lucky" Cardinal gear in the month of October, when the games mean so much more and the fate of our Cardinals, as players and as a team, will be sealed in the annals of baseball history and remembered forever in the tales of October lore.