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It's not easy being Greene

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(Sorry...couldn't resist!)

First, a couple of procedural matters. I’ve been out of town for a week and am just getting reacquainted w/ this thing we call "a computer" and am trying to catch up on my Cardinal and baseball-related required reading. Go to futureredbirds and check out their posts on the Cards’ top prospects. It’s always good to see the next wave of players to help us know what to look forward to (and what to lament).

Second, there’s an organizational report over at USA Today (thanks, gdm, for the link) where you can go to read about Carp’s importance to the team and some of our prospects. It reads as a USA Today does – which means many of you already know more than what’s there, but it still makes for an interesting read.

Third, Miles really does love St. Louis after all. Apparently Mo offered Miles 2 years (yuck!) and $4.3 M (double-yuck!) and Miles…wait for it…here’s that quote again, reprising Edgar Renteria circa 2004 … "went with the team that wanted me more." Many have used that oft-quoted remark by Edgar 4 years hence to suggest some lingering animus between he and the team and likely they’ll do the same w/ Miles, particularly since we’ll be playing against him 36 times or so in the next couple of years. IMO, it’s overblown. Miles is right and Renteria was right. They each went w/ the team that wanted them more and I’m glad that the Cubs wanted Miles more. We’ll be just fine. Good luck, Aaron. I hope it works out for you. And hopefully we won’t have to read what a traitor Miles was (as we did w/ Edmonds a million times) for signing w/ the Cubs.

Ok, to our Khalil Greene projections. There were 82 of them – outstanding! -- and they ranged from Forester Shane’s very optimistic .276/.320/.525 w/ 31 HR projection to capn crunch’s not so optimistic .252/.312/.407 w/ 13 HR projection. I was a little surprised that 13 HR (twice) was our community’s low. As a group, we’re very optimistic about Greene’s 2009 which, as some of you pointed out (and I forgot to mention) is his contract year.

AB H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
High 600 160 31 92 .321 .381 .525
Low 372 94 13 51 .213 .270 .381

There’s quite a range but he could still be a pretty valuable SS if he finished w/ 13 HR and 51 RBI, assuming his OBP was closer to .320 than .270. If he hit some doubles and triples, his SLG would still be in the .420-.440 range and, considering his at least league-average defense, he’d be our best SS since Edgar – even w/ 13 HR and 51 RBI. As a group, we’re considerably more optimistic than either the ZIPS or Marcel projections (PECOTA’s not out yet).

AB H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
Ours 498 131 19 71 .263 .316 .449
Zips 453 113 17 65 .249 .303 .435
Marcel 436 104 15 55 .239 .291 .408

Compare all that to his career averages (not counting his 65 ABs in 2003).

AB H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
466 116 16 64 .249 .306 .428

There’s a lot working in Greene’s favor – a switch from PETCO to Busch, a contract year, maybe a greater commitment to prove his awful 2008 was a fluke. Hopefully those things come to fruition – hopefully for us, and hopefully for him b/c if he performs this season as we expect him to, he’s going to make a lot of money next offseason.