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Wainwright -- the ace

We had 68 responses to our community projections for our ace. In comparing our projections to those of the "experts", it’s probably going to best to pay attention to the rate stats rather than the counting stats. Neither the Marcel nor the Chone projections are very optimistic when it comes to his IP. Therefore, his W and K suffer as a result. (At least his HR and BB are fewer in number?)

Let’s get right to it.

ZIPS 26 165 11 8 12 49 110 3.71 1.31
Marcel 135 9 6 11 43 99 3.67 1.29
Chone 25 124 8 6 11 36 85 3.77 1.28
VEB 30.7 199 16.4 7 14.5 56.7 144.2 3.31 1.22

Once again, here at VEB we are extremely optimistic. In fairness, in 2 of our first 3 projections are for players who, because of ineffectiveness or injury, underperformed last year. Still, we are way ahead of what the other projections have pegged for Wainer. Let’s look at just the rate stats.

HR/9 BB/9 K/9
ZIPS 0.65 2.67 6.0
Marcel 0.73 2.87 6.60
Chone 0.80 2.61 6.17
VEB 0.66 2.57 6.52

So maybe our numbers aren’t that out of line after all. The big difference between our numbers and the ZIPS, Marcel, and Chone projections is that we expect him to pitch many more innings, and start many more games than they do. That’s not all that unusual. Those projection systems weigh the previous season much more heavily than any other season and can’t forecast a "comeback" the way we can. I, for one, hope that we’re right. If we’re going to be close, Wainwright’s going to have to get 200 innings or so.

As far as our projections go, they ranged from mojowo11’s 140 innings to RayMonD’s and giveml’s 224. Gdm has Wainwright garnering 22 wins while the low, by archsupport, is 12. That’s not all that low – to be the lowest of 68 projections. His losses range from 4 to 11 – every one of us has Wainwright w/ a winning record in ’09. His ERA ranges from 2.48 (Wow!) to 3.88. Just to be clear, our highest projections for Wainwright’s ERA are only slightly higher than the ZIPS and Chone projections. Needless to say, we’ve got a high opinion of Wainwright’s abilities and the team needs us to be right.

In other news, for some reason the Cards have no interest in having Russ Springer return in ’09. Ok, I get that he’s 40 and has absolutely no experience as a closer. I get that La Russa doesn’t really like him pitching consecutive days. But, as long as we’re looking for good bullpen arms, he’s a pretty good one. He could certainly help solidify the pen better than Izzy or Brandon Lyon, despite his relative dearth of experience. Would we really rather have Izzy than Springer just b/c Izzy has 293 career saves and Springer has 8? Who will be the better pitcher in ’09? I’m just askin’.

Finally, if you’re not checking out future redbirds daily, you’re missing out. In today’s episode, Erik has absolutely fallen in love w/ Sky Kalkman’s new WAR spreadsheet. He uses it today to take Cards’ minor leaguers’ peak translations from BP to determine that the 2011 Cards could be a 91 win team. Granted these are just projections, and projections based on minor league numbers at that. Still, combine this w/ Erik’s determination that the best free agents still on the market would win just 80 games and it’s easy to see why the worm has turned in major league front offices. Teams are placing much more value on younger, cost-controlled players and less on older, eligible-for-free-agency players.

I’ll be programming tomorrow’s post and Thursday’s as I’m off to DC for the inauguration. Because I am, at heart, a masochist, I am among about 10 other teachers taking about 90 students to DC for what promises to be an eventful, yet cold, 5 days. The point is that you won’t be seeing me in the threads very often in the next few days so …. You kids behave or I’ll call your parents! (just getting prepared!)