clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

odds n sods

sifting through some numbers coming out of the off day ----

  • for all their struggles with the stick, the cardinals have been consistent in one regard --- they nearly always score at least 3 runs. in their first 52 games they’ve scored 2 runs or fewer only 8 times, which is the 2nd lowest figure in the league; the cubs have only 7 low-output games. why is this important? because big-league teams this year have a .123 winning percentage when scoring 2 runs or fewer; once you get to 3 runs, you start to have a reasonable chance to win the game. the breakdown is:

    0 runs .000
    1 runs .079
    2 runs .209
    3 runs .360
    4 runs .490
    5 runs .667
    6 runs .775

    it so happens that the cardinals are woefully bad when scoring 3 runs; they’re only 2-10 in those games, mainly because the bullpen’s failures (by sheer coincidence) have often occurred in games when the offense provided 3 runs. but when scoring at least 4 runs, the cardinals are 27-3.

  • a while ago i noted that the cards have an inordinately high batting average on groundballs; they have since regressed toward the mean, although they remain well above average in this category. through their first 31 games they were hitting .276 on grounders, nearly 50 points above the league average; since then (21 games) they’ve hit .246 on grounders. they’re now at .263 for the season, which is still the highest figure in the league and 32 points above the norm --- still probably not sustainable. i’d expect them to end up no higher than .250 when all is said and done.
  • also due for a comedown in this category, btw: the cubs. they’re 2nd in the league in avg on grounders, 3 points behind the cardinals at .260.
  • as long as we’re parsing batted balls, the cardinals and cubs also rank 1-2 in the national league in line drives. st. louis is averaging just over 6 line drives a game, nearly one a game above the norm. that probably is sustainable --- last season the cardinals ranked 2d in the league in line drives, hitting 5.75 a game; in 2006 they ranked 1st and hit with 5.83 ld/g. i’d imagine albert pujols accounts for the bulk of the cardinals’ prowess in this regard . . . . .
  • st. louis is the only national league without a bunt hit this year.
  • can anybody make sense of this table for me:

    R/G avg obp slg
    2008 cards home 4.44 .286 .374 .420
    2008 cards away 4.76 .270 .356 .402

    they’re hitting significantly better at home, yet scoring significantly fewer runs; any guesses? it’s gotta be an RISP/LOB problem. they have identical totals of doubles (47) and homers (22) home and away, and they draw more walks at home. . . .

  • Baseball Prospectus has started running its playoff odds report; the cards are currently given a 27 percent shot at winning the division (the cubs are at 52 percent) and a 15 percent shot at winning the wild card. their overall playoff odds of 42 percent are 4th best in the nl, behind arizona, chicago, and atlanta.
  • last week the guys at the WSJ’s Daily Fix posted the first in-season update to the baseball contest. my picks are already looking ragged. i picked the tigers and (on a lark) reds to win the wild cards, and they’re both in last place; i guessed that grady sizemore would break out and win the al mvp, and he’s hitting .254; i picked felix hernandez for the al cy young award, and he’s 2-5; i picked daric barton to win the al rookie of the year award, and he’s hitting .211 with no power. i pretty much suck at the baseball contest. . . .
  • also, if you haven’t checked out the red baron’s stuff over at RFT’s The Rundown, you ought to start doing so. he’s posting there pretty much daily.
  • i hadn’t noticed this, but the memphis redbirds are in first place in the pcl north division . . . .