stroke of good luck for st louis: they don’t have to face peavy tonight. instead they’ll face a journeyman left-handed pitcher, wil ledezma, with a 5.09 career era. the cardinals always tee off on guys like this . . . .
i’m well aware that clutch hitting comes and goes; it’s not really a "skill" except in rare cases. but from a purely descriptive standpoint, skip schumaker’s achievements in the clutch so far in 2008 deserve mention. his game-winner yesterday was his 3d walk-off hit of the year, to go along with his clinching blows on april 26 (single) and may 2 (homer). he also had a 9th-inning game-winner on the road (ie, not a walkoff) on april 21 against milwaukee (double). in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats so far this year, schumaker has 7 base hits --- 4 singles, 2 doubles, and a homer --- plus a sacrifice and a "productive out" (he grounded to 2d, moving the go-ahead run to 3d base with 1 out; he later scored). that’s 7 for 9, if you’re scoring at home. the full list, courtesy of fangraphs:
| lev | date | foe | inn | sco | out | runners | pitcher | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.65 | 5/2 | chi | 11 | 3-3 | 1 | 3rd | c fox | gw homer |
| 4.58 | 4/22 | mil | 9 | 7-7 | 0 | 1st | e gagne | rbi single |
| 4.36 | 4/21 | mil | 9 | 3-3 | 1 | 3rd | d turnbow | rbi double |
| 4.33 | 4/25 | hou | 9 | 2-3 | 0 | 2d | j valverde | gb (runner advanced) |
| 4.29 | 4/26 | hou | 9 | 3-3 | 1 | 1st / 2d | w wright | gw single |
| 4.29 | 5/18 | tb | 9 | 4-4 | 1 | 1st / 2d | g glover | gw single |
| 4.28 | 5/18 | tb | 8 | 2-4 | 0 | 1st / 2d | t miller | sac |
| 3.81 | 5/18 | tb | 6 | 0-3 | 1 | loaded | j howell | rbi single |
| 3.43 | 5/10 | mil | 9 | 3-3 | 0 | 1st | e gagne | single |
| 3.28 | 4/13 | sf | 8 | 4-7 | 2 | loaded | t walker | groundout |
you’ll note that 3 of the at-bats on this list occurred in yesterday’s game, in the 6th, 8th, and 9th innings. to reiterate, i’m not arguing that schumaker’s clutch performance represents a repeatable skill; in his next 10 high-leverage at-bats, he might very well go 1 for 10. (for the record, skip was 3 for 9 with a walk in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats of 2007.) but his heroics in the early going deserve some recognition.
the anti-skip of 2008 thus far is rick ankiel: in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats, he is 0 for 10 with 6 strikeouts and 4 groundouts; hasn’t even gotten the ball out of the infield. last year he was 3 for 10 with a homer in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats . . . . . chris duncan is 1 for 10 so far in 2008. oh what the hell, here’s the whole list, ordered by win probability added:
| results | notes | WPA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| schumaker | 7 for 9 | homer, 2 doubles | 1.293 |
| glaus | 3 for 7 | homer, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts | .781 |
| ludwick | 4 for 10 | homer, 2 doubles | .609 |
| miles | 4 for 8 | 2 walks | .248 |
| kennedy | 2 for 8 | walk, sac fly | .055 |
| ryan | 3 for 8 | walk, sac | .044 |
| izturis | 1 for 6 | 2 walks, hbp, sac | -.122 |
| pujols | 1 for 8 | 2 walks | -.170 |
| molina | 1 for 8 | 2 walks | -.302 |
| duncan | 1 for 10 | -.567 | |
| ankiel | 0 for 10 | 6 strikeouts | -.946 |
intentional walks are not included on this list; pujols has been passed 3 times in high-leverage situations, but i’m not counting those. for the final time, this list is not intended to identify who’s a clutch player and who’s a choker; it describes what has happened so far this year, but that bears little if any relation to what may happen going forward.
items:
- welcome to the big leagues, chris perez --- and jason motte may not be far behind. he struck out the side in the 9th yesterday to preserve a 1-0 win and earn his first save as perez’s replacement in memphis. motte pitched to 7 batters over the weekend and struck out 6 of’m; the other guy singled.
- in the same game, mitch boggs threw 7 innings of 2-hit, no-run ball with the following outfield playing behind him: gabe johnson, a catcher, in left field; joe mather, a first baseman, in center; and nick stavinoha, a first baseman who converted to outfield two years ago, in right field. boggs is making a powerful case for promotion --- he’s 4-1 with a 3.33 era; striking guys out, avoiding walks, keeping the ball in the park, and getting groundballs.
- the 1986 sim-strat-o-cardinals are tied 1-1 with the yankees in the world series . the bronx bombers roughed up john tudor yesterday.
- david eckstein sighting: were y’all aware that he’s been on the DL since may 6? i wasn’t . . . . he committed 6 errors in his first 30 games.