before i get to the results of our pineiro projection, some news n notes:
- chris carpenter's feeling upbeat about his return:
"The question is whether it's going to be before the All-Star break, after the All-Star break or somewhere in between," Carpenter said after a lengthy workout at the club's Roger Dean Stadium complex. "It just depends on how things go. I'm hoping it's going to be before. But everyone I've talked to has told me not to rush. . . . "i file this into the "hope springs eternal" category; every team is undefeated in february, yadda yadda. but hey, i'd be thrilled to get even 10 starts from carpenter this year; anything more than that and i just might have to plotz.
Carpenter made three sets of 25 tosses from 90 feet Wednesday. He plans to reach 120 feet next week, 150 feet in early March, then to throw off a mound before the team breaks camp.
- i wonder how an early carpenter return would alter the vegas odds on the cardinals? the bookies currently give our guys a 1 in 28 chance to win the world series. insofar as the cards have won 1 of the last 25 titles and are 1 of 30 big league teams, those are just about the vanilla-est odds you can imagine . . . .
- if you're a FireJoeMorgan fan, you might be shocked to know (or maybe you already suspected) that Ken Tremendous and Michael Schur (Emmy-winning The Office writer) are the same person.
- three games past the halfway point, the 1986 cardinals are 2 games up on the nl east and 4 games ahead of the pond scum. this despite an apparent injury to terry pendleton (who only has 32 at-bats all year) and batting averages of .212 (jack clark and vince coleman), .219 (tom herr), and .229 (jose oquendo) in the everyday lineup. the '86 cards rank dead last in the league in batting, obp, and slugging, a clean sweep; it goes without saying they're dead last in homers. but they've got the 2d best era in the league.
but won-loss records never tell the whole story, and they're inherently squirrelly. in the aggregate, i think the community has made a pretty realistic projection. here it is, alongside those generated by the name-brand forecasters:
while VEB is optimistic (relative to the other systems) where won-loss record is concerned, our rate stats are comparable to the ones most of the computer-based systems are generating. if you take the PECOTA projection and multiply the counting stats by 2, you end up with numbers nearly identical to ours. as with matt clement, our community made an internally consistent projection on pineiro: our numbers yield a projected FIP of 4.43, almost dead-on the projected era of 4.44. even more striking, our community nailed pineiro's career averages in the rate stats:
crowds; wisdom; whatever. the quintessential-projector award goes to Mr Clean: