before i get to the results of the yadi projection, here are a couple of interesting reads:
- SB Nation's philadelphia site, the Good Phight, has some interesting thoughts about the two principals in the stl-toronto challenge trade:
[Rolen's] gushing delight at playing for St. Louis--or, as he called it, "Heaven"--has long grated on Phillies diehardsl there's more than a little schadenfreude to be enjoyed from the fact that Rolen's relationship with Tony LaRussa went so far south that he's willing to brave the artificial turf of Toronto just to get away.
But it's the other guy in the trade whom I'm thinking about. Troy Glaus isn't the defender Rolen is, but his right-handed power has produced 95 home runs in the last three seasons even as a series of nagging injuries kept Glaus on the sidelines for 70 games over that span. (Yes, he was involved in steroid allegations--but that was during his Angels tenure, which ended in 2004. He's clean now.) Glaus has a reasonable contract--he's owed $24 million for the next two years.
Why weren't the Phillies in on him? it's frustrating to see a legit 30-homer solution like Glaus change uniforms without any indication the Phils so much as nibbled.
- joe posnanski was in st louis this week for the st louis baseball writers' dinner and wrote up a long, disjointed, fun-fact-packed review. for a quick sampling, here's a gem from bob gibson:
At the event, Jay Randolph asked Gibson about pitchers today not going the distance, and Gibson said something great for a former player. He said, "Pitchers get a bad rap, but it's just that the game has changed. I used to get tired in the seventh inning, too. And the manager would come to the mound and ask me if I wanted to come out. Then I would look over at the bullpen and see who was warming up. Then I would say, `No, I'm going to stay in.'"gibson rocks.
|VEB 2008 proj||417||42||114||21||0||9||54||42||.272||.345||.388|
we are projecting new career highs in hits, homers, rbis, on-base, and slugging; a stretch, perhaps, but given molina's age and the strides he made last year it's not unrealistic to forecast some modest improvement. some of the other projectors are doing it:
we're bullisher on molina than all the name-brand systems, which is rarely the case. but ultimately, the difference among these projections simply comes down to batting average: the name-branders think molina's .275 average last year was a random blip and he's due to regress, while the VEB community thinks it represents sustainable improvement in ability --- ie, he's made himself into a true .275 hitter. but there's a strong consensus that yadi can be expected to improve his power significantly and sustain his (much-improved) 2007 walk rate:
ultimately, the judgment of his season may come down to whether or not a given 5 or 10 batted balls happen to find holes; that may be the difference between a disappointing .250 / .320 / .360 line and a gratifying .275 / .345 / .390 line.
the quintessential projector was DiscoJer: