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Game 126 Open Thread: August 25, 2007



15-5, 3.07

4-2, 4.34


you knew the pitching was bound to regress at least a little (more likely a lot). they weren't going to keep getting quality starts night after night; not even a good rotation can keep that up indefinitely. so it doesn't surprise me to see a good-hitting team knock kip wells around. to see the defense regress --- that surprises me. i'd attributed the team's lax defense during the first half of the year to the general malaise, the overall lack of focus. but the team has been consistently sharp for several weeks (see bernie's recent Extra Points post on the subject), and they're playing at home, where they've done well all year . . . . you look back over this homestand, and the cards are pretty lucky to be 2-2. both the wins came on late-inning comebacks, the first of which only happened because the opponent botched an easy out. they've played better lately, yes --- but they still don't have much margin for error. according to Baseball Prospectus, the cardinals have a 9 percent chance to make the playoffs. i think that's a bit too low; i'd give them about a 1 in 5 chance. the cards are trading at $12 at tradesports, which translates into roughly a 12 percent chance.

apologies for the short post; i'm fresh off an unscheduled trip and pretty beat. more to say (good stuff, i hope) on monday.