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community projection results: anthony reyes

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the cardinals and mets play again today at 12:05 central time; braden looper starts for the cardinals. no tv or radio, but (if i have correctly learned the url convention that liam introduced the other day) you should be able to follow the action via mlb.com's gameday by clicking here. Update [2007-3-2 11:50:50 by lboros]: goold has the lineups, along with this unfortunate information:

Shortstop David Eckstein felt a tug and, while he tried to practice through it, has been put on the shelf indefinitely with what manager Tony La Russa called a "feeling like he did" when he slid into home late last season. That feeling was a strained oblique.
the word "indefinitely" kind of screams at me loudly in that report. . . . . pipe down, indefinitely. [end update]

before we look at the numbers for Iron Bill, there are a couple of new community-projection threads up on the diary bar: jason isringhausen and yadier molina. those will stay open until sunday, and we'll check out the results early next week.

also, if the name of the mexican pitcher the cardinals signed yesterday sounds familiar, it's because he was troy cate's teammate in the liga mexicana del pacifico; he gave up a walkoff homer and took the loss in game 1 of the league finals vs hermosillo. according to the p-d, this new player might open the season at springfield.

thanks to everyone who posted numbers in the anthony reyes projection thread; we got a healthy response. also thanks to jonathan23 for cut-pasting the numbers out of the diary thread and into excel, then tallying 'em up. our community projection:

IP H BB SO HR W-L ERA WHIP
173 163 58 145 24 13-9 4.14 1.280

should reyes pitch to those standards, i'm sure we'd all take it. here are some similar seasons turned in by recent cardinal pitchers:

IP W-L ERA WHIP
reyes proj 173 13-9 4.14 1.280
suppan 06 190 12-7 4.12 1.453
morris 05 193 14-10 4.11 1.277
woody 04 190 11-8 4.18 1.323

hey, here's a trivia question: if reyes hits this projection, he'll be the first sophomore starting pitcher to throw more than 150 innings for the cardinals since . . . . who? and here's part II: if reyes hits this projection, he'll be the first sophomore starter to win 10 or more games for the cardinals since . . . . . who? put your guesses in the comments.

here's how our projection stacks up against the experts' --- ordered by ERA, ascending:

IP H BB SO HR W-L ERA WHIP
CHONE 147 128 45 133 19 n/a 3.37 1.177
Bill James 142 128 40 131 20 9-6 3.61 1.183
PECOTA 168 153 52 141 22 11-9 3.81 1.220
ZIPS 154 147 39 130 24 10-7 3.86 1.208
Shandler 185 n/a n/a 168 23 12-10 4.10 1.240
VEB 173 163 58 145 24 13-9 4.14 1.280
Marcel 100 97 38 82 16 6-7 4.59 1.350

we're the skeptics in this crowd. aside from Marcel (which is not well designed to deal with inexperienced players like reyes), we project the highest era, the highest whip, and the worst k/w ratio among all the projectors --- yet, ever the team loyalists, we still project the best won-loss record. our numbers are quite close to PECOTA's, and consistent with it: we project reyes to allow similar, but slightly higher, rates of walks, hits, and home runs; accordingly our projected era is similar but slightly higher. the difference --- 0.33 points of era --- translates into about 5 runs over the course of the season, or half an expected win.

here's the aggregate projection, derived from the 7 above:

IP H BB SO HR W-L ERA WHIP
153 142 47 132 21 10-8 3.91 1.235

if reyes were to post those numbers, he'd likely wind up among the league leaders in some key categories. his hits per 9 by this projection equals 8.34; that would have ranked 10th in the league last year, right behind peavy, arroyo, webb, and schmidt. (carpenter was 4th.) reyes' composite k/9 projection of 7.8 would have ranked just outside the top 10 last season; ditto his k/w of 2.76. now, the caveat: if he only throws 153 innings, he's not eligible to appear on the league leaderboards in any rate category. the minimum's 162 ip.

out of curiosity, i decided to test our era projection against itself --- viz., i used the peripherals we projected for reyes (hit rate, walk rate, k rate, hr rate) to calculate component ERA, or ERC --- a stat developed by bill james --- and expected era, or xERA, a stat developed by Ron Shandler's folks. the formulas for calculating both are here, at dan fox's old site. to give us a third point of comparison, jonathan23 helpfully provided the formula for FIP, or fielding independent pitching, a stat developed by the Hardball Times

it turns out we did a very realistic, internally consistent job of projecting. the component numbers that we projected for reyes yielded ERC, xERA, and FIP very close to our projected era. look:

ERA ERC xERA FIP
VEB 4.14 3.88 4.07 4.33

i'll have some time to write up more results from the all-time tournament this afternoon and over the weekend.