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Spring Training stats vs. PECOTA: one on one.

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Cardinals take on the Nationals today. The matchup: Anthony Reyes versus... Jason Simontacci. This should be the gameday link. Now for our spring training leaderboard:

HR: Duncan, Gonzalez, Schumaker (2)
AB: C. Duncan (36)
ERA: Eight tied at (0.00)
W: Reyes, Wainwright (2)

I don't know about you guys, but it's been a long time sine I remember a spring training where the team had this much turnover, yet I'm so disinterested in the personnel decisions that the higher ups make this time around. Yeah, I think it'd be fun to see Ankiel on the team for a week to a month while Edmonds rehabs, and yeah, it's annoying that you know that management is going north with So Taguchi, and John Rodriguez will have to maim to keep his spot. I'm curious to see how this fifth rotation spot turns out (Braden Looper has been looking pretty good, so far). But that's kind of it--we're talking about bench spots and the fifth spot in the rotation.

I guess the amazing story this spring training is that it is giving us a glimpse of what the forecasting robots predicted for the team: the twenty five pitchers that have appeared in spring training games have combined to allow, on average 2.83 runs per game (NOT earned runs--runs). Meanwhile, the offense has been earing 4.64 runs per game. Seems like it's heuristically what the robots say--an offense that is middling to above average, and pitching that's potentially great.

I somehow doubt that the regular season team is going to have anything approaching that run differential (I refuse to even cite the 162 game Pythagorean), but it lends yet more credence to the idea that this team is going to live and die by its rotation, and the somewhat unpredictable futures of Reyes, Wells and Wainwright.

I'm so ready for the actual season to start.