small bit of housekeeping: brackets for the simulation tournament are due by sunday. i'll start posting results next week. here's a link to the downloadable bracket, which you fill out and return to Cardinal70 at cardinal70@gmail.com.
last year at about this time, the VEB community did a series of player projections. people posted their gut feeling about how certain players were going to perform in 2006, and i averaged 'em up and posted the results. we only did them for half a dozen players, but one of our projections was perhaps the most accurate stat-line forecast ever issued. here's what the community projected for juan encarnacion (see original post), with his actual stat line underneath:
| avg | hr | rbi | r | obp | slg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| en'cion projected | .277 | 19 | 79 | 70 | .333 | .451 |
| en'cion actual | .278 | 19 | 79 | 74 | .317 | .443 |
i'd like to see PECOTA do that. the rest of our projections weren't so scarily accurate; the scary part (aside from one other very good forecast, for scott rolen) was how wrong we were:
| avg | obp | slg | hr | rbi | r | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rolen proj | .283 | .375 | .522 | 27 | 102 | 91 |
| rolen act'l | .296 | .369 | .518 | 22 | 95 | 94 |
| edmonds proj | .282 | .388 | .555 | 30 | 95 | 88 |
| edmonds act'l | .257 | .350 | .471 | 19 | 70 | 52 |
| molina proj | .271 | .324 | .388 | 12 | 63 | 49 |
| molina act'l | .216 | .274 | .321 | 6 | 49 | 29 |
| spivey proj | .273 | .349 | .432 | 13 | 57 | 70 |
| spivey act'l | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| inn | w-l | era | whip | hr | so | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mulder proj | 208 | 17-9 | 3.60 | 1.28 | 19 | 128 |
| mulder act'l | 93 | 6-7 | 7.14 | 1.70 | 19 | 50 |
in our defense, all the "professional" forecasters were also wrong about edmonds, molina, mulder, and spivey ---- not as optimistic as we were, but still way off the mark.
it was an amusing experiment and people seemed to enjoy it, so let's give it another shot this year and see how things go. we did our first projection last year for jimmy edmonds, so why don't we start again with him. just post your estimates for edmonds' final numbers in the following categories:
- at-bats
- avg
- slg
- obp
- hr
- rbi
- runs
- the idea is to go mostly from your gut; please don't look at PECOTA / ZIPS etc before you make a guess.
- likewise, try not to look at other posters' estimates before you type yours in. it's a better exercise (and more fun) if you submit your numbers and then compare your estimate to ev'yone else's
- i do recommend that you glance at edmonds' career line before you submit your numbers. (here's a link to edmonds' year-by-year stats.)
- i also recommend that you check your numbers for internal consistency. for example, a projection that calls for a .265 average, 21 homers, and a .550 slugging average doesn't add up; not enough homers there to support such a high slugging avg. i'm not asking you to sit down with a calculator or anything; just eyeball your numbers and make sure they more or less fit together.