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community projections I: edmonds

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small bit of housekeeping: brackets for the simulation tournament are due by sunday. i'll start posting results next week. here's a link to the downloadable bracket, which you fill out and return to Cardinal70 at cardinal70@gmail.com.

last year at about this time, the VEB community did a series of player projections. people posted their gut feeling about how certain players were going to perform in 2006, and i averaged 'em up and posted the results. we only did them for half a dozen players, but one of our projections was perhaps the most accurate stat-line forecast ever issued. here's what the community projected for juan encarnacion (see original post), with his actual stat line underneath:

avg hr rbi r obp slg
en'cion projected .277 19 79 70 .333 .451
en'cion actual .278 19 79 74 .317 .443

i'd like to see PECOTA do that. the rest of our projections weren't so scarily accurate; the scary part (aside from one other very good forecast, for scott rolen) was how wrong we were:

avg obp slg hr rbi r
rolen proj .283 .375 .522 27 102 91
rolen act'l .296 .369 .518 22 95 94
edmonds proj .282 .388 .555 30 95 88
edmonds act'l .257 .350 .471 19 70 52
molina proj .271 .324 .388 12 63 49
molina act'l .216 .274 .321 6 49 29
spivey proj .273 .349 .432 13 57 70
spivey act'l -- -- -- -- -- --
inn w-l era whip hr so
mulder proj 208 17-9 3.60 1.28 19 128
mulder act'l 93 6-7 7.14 1.70 19 50

in our defense, all the "professional" forecasters were also wrong about edmonds, molina, mulder, and spivey ---- not as optimistic as we were, but still way off the mark.

it was an amusing experiment and people seemed to enjoy it, so let's give it another shot this year and see how things go. we did our first projection last year for jimmy edmonds, so why don't we start again with him. just post your estimates for edmonds' final numbers in the following categories:

  1. at-bats
  2. avg
  3. slg
  4. obp
  5. hr
  6. rbi
  7. runs
.before we dive in, a couple of tips:
  • the idea is to go mostly from your gut; please don't look at PECOTA / ZIPS etc before you make a guess.
  • likewise, try not to look at other posters' estimates before you type yours in. it's a better exercise (and more fun) if you submit your numbers and then compare your estimate to ev'yone else's
  • i do recommend that you glance at edmonds' career line before you submit your numbers. (here's a link to edmonds' year-by-year stats.)
  • i also recommend that you check your numbers for internal consistency. for example, a projection that calls for a .265 average, 21 homers, and a .550 slugging average doesn't add up; not enough homers there to support such a high slugging avg. i'm not asking you to sit down with a calculator or anything; just eyeball your numbers and make sure they more or less fit together.
finally, whether or not you post an edmonds projection, let me know the following: a) do you want to do more community projections after this one, and b) if "yes," then what players would you most like to see projections on?