here's an early xmas present for ev'ybody: an extra 25 runs on tuesday's projected team run total. i inadvertently changed a plus sign to a minus in the base runs formula, and that threw all my calculations off --- they came in too low. here are the corrected figures:
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | W | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | |||
| ZIPS | 5555 | 1414 | 288 | 19 | 160 | 560 | .255 | .323 | .400 | 725 | ||
| CHONE | 5555 | 1439 | 280 | 23 | 171 | 589 | .259 | .330 | .410 | 759 | ||
| 2007 TOTAL | 5529 | 1513 | 279 | 13 | 141 | 560 | .274 | .340 | .405 | 761 |
the cards' actual run total last year was 725, so ZIPS --- bearish though it is on nearly every cardinal hitter --- projects the 2008 offense to be no worse than 2007's. and CHONE projects the offense to be about 35 runs better than last year's. . . . . well, sort of. the issue is confused by the fact that the cards underperformed their base runs estimate last year by 36 runs; their basic inputs (baserunners and extra-base hits) should have produced about 761 runs, but only 725 crossed the plate. that's a significant discrepancy and worthy of its own post; i'll take the matter up on thursday.
i owe a big thank you to Sleepy CA for checking my math and helping me find the error in my calculations.