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it only hurts when i gaffe

here's an early xmas present for ev'ybody: an extra 25 runs on tuesday's projected team run total. i inadvertently changed a plus sign to a minus in the base runs formula, and that threw all my calculations off --- they came in too low. here are the corrected figures:

ZIPS 5555 1414 288 19 160 560 .255 .323 .400 725
CHONE 5555 1439 280 23 171 589 .259 .330 .410 759
2007 TOTAL 5529 1513 279 13 141 560 .274 .340 .405 761

the cards' actual run total last year was 725, so ZIPS --- bearish though it is on nearly every cardinal hitter --- projects the 2008 offense to be no worse than 2007's. and CHONE projects the offense to be about 35 runs better than last year's. . . . . well, sort of. the issue is confused by the fact that the cards underperformed their base runs estimate last year by 36 runs; their basic inputs (baserunners and extra-base hits) should have produced about 761 runs, but only 725 crossed the plate. that's a significant discrepancy and worthy of its own post; i'll take the matter up on thursday.

i owe a big thank you to Sleepy CA for checking my math and helping me find the error in my calculations.