here's an early xmas present for ev'ybody: an extra 25 runs on tuesday's projected team run total. i inadvertently changed a plus sign to a minus in the base runs formula, and that threw all my calculations off --- they came in too low. here are the corrected figures:
the cards' actual run total last year was 725, so ZIPS --- bearish though it is on nearly every cardinal hitter --- projects the 2008 offense to be no worse than 2007's. and CHONE projects the offense to be about 35 runs better than last year's. . . . . well, sort of. the issue is confused by the fact that the cards underperformed their base runs estimate last year by 36 runs; their basic inputs (baserunners and extra-base hits) should have produced about 761 runs, but only 725 crossed the plate. that's a significant discrepancy and worthy of its own post; i'll take the matter up on thursday.
i owe a big thank you to Sleepy CA for checking my math and helping me find the error in my calculations.