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Game 144 Open Thread: September 12, 2006

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weaver pettitte
3-4, 5.19 13-13, 4.34

i'm sure i'll regret saying this, but . . . . . the astros are the type of team jeff weaver might pitch well against. all the clubs that have really hurt him feature tremendous left-handed power -- the braves, phillies, and mets. houston has one serious lh power threat -- berkman -- and a couple of credible ones in huff and mike lamb. but they rank 29th out of 30 mlb teams in slugging pct, 26th in isolated power. the Weaver Experience remains very much a game-to-game proposition; while his runs allowed have been down (3.64 over his last 7 starts), his peripherals remain dicey. this could still go either way.

ain't that the cardinals' whole season in a nutshell . . . .

i've flip-flopped on weaver -- was happy with the acquisition, soured after two blowout losses in his 1st four starts; now flop-flipping back again, to wary optimism. his k rate is inching upward, an encouraging sign, but his hr rate remains abominable. he has pitched 5 times at busch -- two poundings, one so-so game, and two very strong starts. if he's gonna click for us, tonight would be a swell time to get going.

a win tonight, and the race is essentially over -- if it isn't already. baseball prospectus now lists st louis' probability of winning the nl central at 88 percent.