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brew crew: 86-76

not a heavy response to the brew-crew projection; 19 entries, which averaged out to the following:

3d place
747 runs
691 runs against

our projected runs for/against come out to an 87-75 record via the pythagorean formula -- right in line with the community's projected w-l record. once again the collective mind expresses itself coherently; whether or not accurately we'll find out come october.

our projection concurs with the conclusion we derive by aggregating the brewers' pecota forecasts, using the method i described in this post. that exercise puts milwaukee at about 775 runs scored, 725 allowed, which translates into a .533 pythagorean won-loss percentage, or an 86-76 record.

nobody was brave enough to pick the brewers to win the division, which is not surprising but also not very realistic, considering the number of responses we got. even if we place their odds of winning the division very conservatively at 5 percent, milwaukee should have gotten 1 first-place vote out of 19. and the brewers' odds of winning the division are surely better than that; hell, gives them a 5 percent chance to win the nl pennant -- ie, make the playoffs and then win two playoff series. sportsbook doesn't list division-winner odds, but based on their line to win the league title i gotta think milwaukee's at no worse than 9 or 10 percent (ie, around 12-1) for the nl central crown. which means we prob'y shoulda had two 1st-place forecasts among our 19 projections.

another benchmark: in the ZIPS-based 100-season simulation written up at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog about a month ago, the brewers won the division 5 times in 100 tries. it should be noted, however, that milwaukee's average record for the 100 seasons was 80-82; they scored an average of 704 runs and allowed 716.

back this afternoon with some actual cardinal-related material . . . . .