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World Series Game 2 Open Thread: October 22, 2006

weaver rogers
8-14, 5.76 17-8, 3.84

Thanks to yesterday's great effort from Reyes, Pujols and the gang, the onus is now on the Tigers to win tonight's game. Keeping with the SoCal mojo going, Weaver will be on the mound opposing his old team, for which Todd Jones says there's "no love lost here that he's gone." Not sure why Jones made those comments, nor do I really care, just more soap opera fodder for the postseason. What I do care about is if Weaver can continue what the Cardinal starters have been doing, which is relying on location and movement with fastballs, and he's done that effectively to this point. I can't really imagine the Tigers hitters being as impatient as they were last night, which according to Nate Silver, only saw an average of 2.4 pitches per at bat from the 2nd inning to the 8th. But this impatience isn't uncharacteristic of the Tigers, as they posted at .329 OBP as team, only 14th in the AL overall. Silver also notes that the Tigers finished next to last in the walks and strikeouts category in the AL, which to me seems like it would play into the whole "pitch to contact" game plan the Cardinal pitchers are known for.

The Gambler will be on the mound tonight, and he's been roasting through the playoffs, having not allowed a run in the postseason, striking out 14 in 15 innings. ("Stay Away from the chicken! Bad chicken, mess you up!" Sorry, irresistible Seinfeld reference.) Rogers only struck out 99 the entire season, but somehow the playoffs have turned him into a power pitcher. His curveball has been pretty baffling. The Cardinals need to try and lay off if possible, very seldom did I see against the Yanks or the A's Rogers throw the hook for a strike, sorta like a left handed Suppan. You can also bet you'll see Scott Spiezio in the lineup, as he's 15-38 lifetime against Rogers. Normally, the 'crafty lefty' type would have us all groaning, but the Cardinals did an exceptional job handling Glavine the 2nd go around, and Rogers is fairly similar.

According to Jeff Sackmann's projection for guys who sport pocket protectors, the Tigers had a 63.8% chance of winning yesterday, and a 63.9% chance of winning today. So according to that projection it's more likely to snow in Detroit then for the Cardinals to win tonight. But what else does an 83 win team in the World Series have to do, other then continue to defy odds?