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no game tonight

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per matt leach's blog, game 5 has been postponed. they'll play tuesday at 7:19 cdt.

the temptation is now there to pitch carpenter tuesday on three days' rest. derrick goold makes the case for going to carp at his blog, Bird Land. i have to disagree, respectfully, with derrick on this one. the recent history of short-rest starts in october is a bloody one; i don't have the stats handy, but playoff pitchers from across mlb have combined for something like a 6.00 era while pitching on short rest in the last 10 or 20 seasons. the cards themselves have contributed to those stats, sustaining short-rest blowups by todd stottlemyre in 1996, darryl kile in 2000, and matt morris in 2004. goold bases his opinion on the home/road splits --- carp's better at home, weaver on the road, so if you pitch carp on short rest you can get each pitcher a start at his preferred venue. but home/road splits can be pretty squirrelly; as often as not they are random effects rather than meaningful indicators. but the short-rest thing is far from random; starting carp on that basis defangs the cards' biggest remaining weapon in the series.

if carpenter goes on short rest and loses, the whole season rests in jeff weaver's hands in a game 6 elimination contest at shea stadium. despite jeff's success in his 1st two postseason starts, he's not the guy i want out there in that situation. so i hope they leave the rotation intact. it lines up just so for the cards -- carp and supps on full rest in 6/7, their two best pitchers in the two decisive games of the series.