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see you in october: baseball prospectus puts the cards' odds of winning the division at 91 percent, with a 5 percent chance at taking the wild card. top nl wild-card contenders, per this chart:

  • astros, 19 percent
  • cubs, 17 percent
  • braves, 14 percent
  • mets, 12 percent
  • phillies, 10 percent

the braves are listed as the likeliest nl east division champ (47 percent chance), and the padres are still considered prohibitive favorites (73 percent) to win the west. the washington nationals, who currently lead either the nl east or the wild card (they're tied the braves for both slots), are given just a 1-in-5 chance to make the postseason.

memphis arm report: adam wainwright appears to have run out of gas. he got smoked last night for 6 runs in 5 innings; is now 6-7 with a 3.94 era on the season. in 31 innings this month he has given up 17 runs. for what it is worth, he leads the pcl in innings pitched with 137. anthony reyes, coming off the dl in early july, has pitched four times since then and yielded 8 earned runs in 19+ innings; his era is 3.10, fifth in the league. memphis has three of the league's top 5 in era --- reyes, chris gissell, and kevin jarvis; maybe some kind of park effect involved here? wainwright, for all his struggles, rates 9th in the league in this category . . . . . tyler johnson has started closing games down there -- three saves this month, and now has 50 strikeouts in 39.2 innings this season (but a 5.45 era). . . . . if the cards trade a starting pitcher in the next week or two and need to recall an arm from memphis, something tells me it will be gissell. he has been consistent, has some big-league experience, and probably represents the safest option as a rotation fill-in.

raising crane: cool pic of the busch stadiums, old and new, at pretty war stl. also a nice article in the kc star about old busch stadium architect john meyer, who took in his last game there this weekend (registration required).

mora the merrier: bernie's pressbox is buzzing about a marquis-for-melvin-mora trade rumor. mm is 33 years old, signed through next year at ~$4m per. deal makes a lot of sense to me -- revenue neutral, provides injury insurance at both 3b and corner outfield, fills one of the outfield slots for 2006 . . . . only a rumor, but i like the sound of it.