the other day i wrote favorably about minnesota nontender candidate kyle lohse:
| w-l | era | whip | h/9 | k/9 | k/bb | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | 62-75 | 4.90 | 1.42 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.73 |
| ponson | 76-91 | 4.81 | 1.44 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.80 |
it so happens that after his age-28 season suppan, like ponson, came under the supervision of duncan / la russa. and well we know that in their care supp has been an extremely valuable mid-rotation guy, turning in two career years in a row.
by sheer coincidence, sitting at #4 on ponson's comp list is another pitcher who struggled through age 28, then landed in la russa / duncan's rotation at age 29 and became a much better pitcher: mike moore. data:
| w-l | era | whip | h/9 | k/9 | k/bb | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moore | 66-96 | 4.38 | 1.40 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 1.75 |
| ponson | 76-91 | 4.81 | 1.44 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.80 |
the similarity is not quite as striking, but still very close. upon joining the tony / dunc athletics in 1989, moore went 19-11 with a 2.61 era. his record in four years under their management: 66-46 with a 3.54 era.
interesting stuff, and potentially meaningful -- but be careful not to put too much stock into these comps. ev'y case is a little bit diff'nt; neither suppan or moore posted a 6.20 era the year before they became tony / dunc projects, nor did either have serious alcohol and weight problems. . . . at the same time, the ponson signing seems a little less crazy (not a lot, just a little) when you know that there are some successful precedents to recommend it.
but let's not get carried away. if the cards were gonna gamble on a pitcher, they shoulda just gambled on aj burnett -- more chips on the table, but a bigger payday if you win. ponson is a wager strictly for the $2 tables; you might win the bet, but it still doesn't move you any closer to a jackpot.
by the way, sidney's other comps include jeff weaver, jim clancy, livan hernandez, and scott erickson, all of whom had or are having long careers. . . . .