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tom s.

Apr 04, 2008 Dec 02, 2008 2 620

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The "impact bat" protection myth

I started this as a reply to Lboros' great post and it became something bigger. i hope this is helpful, and I hope i am not just reiterating prior points.

lboros pointed out that we don't need 'protection' for Albert, since we now have 4 guys hitting 25 HR. Lack of power is not an issue. Also, in 2009, Ryan Ludwick is much more likely to get the fear and respect from pitchers that Tony is looking for in that slot because he has that year under his belt and will be recognized.

if you look at how albert drives in runs, a real impact bat would be someone (or better yet, two players) with high OBP in the leadoff and number two slots.

consider this: of Albert's 553 PA this season, 282 PA took place with nobody on base and 120 with only a man on first. With RISP, he has hit 58 RBI, but only 6 HR -- meaning that he drove in other players 52 times. He has 19 solo HR. With a man on first, he has 14 RBI with 5 hr, driving in the man on first only 9 times out of 120! And it's not because he's always being walked -- he has only 12 walks with a man on first. If we want Albert to manufacture runs, we need to get runners in scoring position in FRONT of him.

                           OBP/SLG v. RHP            OBP/SLG v. LHP 
Bases empty         .423/.665                          .478/.726
Man on 1st             .402/.473                          .564/.750
RISP                       .536/.623                         .512/.615

Clearly he's not struggling against LHP, no matter the situation. But against right-handers without a runner in scoring position, he struggles (at least on the adjusted Albert scale). His OBP is comparatively low against RHP with either the bases empty or with a man on first. His slugging bumps up a bit with nobody on, probably because the pitchers are most likely to challenge him with nobody on, and thus the 19 solo HR.

so where does that leave us? I looked at OBP as the target stat -- notwithstanding the fact that pujols's stats get worse with a runner on first. Putting two candidates with good obp one after the other enhances the likelihood of getting two men on. getting just one man in scoring position usually gets albert walked -- not bad, just not immediately manufacturing the run. Albert has 20 RBIs with men on first and second, in only 45 PAs.

Our leadoff slot has an OBP of .350 and our number two's OBP is .353. Under production there is keeping Albert from driving in runs, and even getting on base.

skip did his part in the leadoff with a .370 obp; barton had the next most PA's at leadoff, pulling in an impressive .377 obp. The stinker up front was cesar -- with 50 chances at leadoff izturis brought in .300 obp.

in the 2 slot, miles was wicked with a .386, ludwick incredible with a .391. ankiel stank the joint up with a paltry .295 obp in 78 chances. i don't have a B-R subscription to see the splits for duncan (they only give the top three hitters in terms of pa to non-subscribers), but i will note he has a respectable .346 obp for the season, before anybody blames the weak numbers there on him.

as for the off-season: well, who are possibly available names w/ high obp?

milton bradley got mentioned  as a target (.446!). Matt Holiday (whose home/away splits are a respectable .440/.394). Brian roberts (.377). Ian Kinsler (.375). Orlando hudson (.367). some of these guys project more like the power hitters tony mentions, but some of them might work as number twos. some might bump ludwick up to the two slot (where he did great).

In fact, to close out this post, the best argument for why we should get an "impact bat" because albert needs protection, but because ludwick is a hell of a number two batter (OPS - 1.069 in 2 slot, but .992 in cleanup). Ludwick would be one of the best candidates in the ML to generate runs in front of Pujols. Ankiel would be an our best in-house replacement at cleanup (OPS .851) but probably fits better as a 5 or 6 batter. So, we could look either look for a good leadoff bat and a good number two, or for a power bat for cleanup and a lead-off type SS/2b, and just bump ludwick up to the two slot.

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Dave Duncan and the HOF

This blurb in the NY Times caught my eye and got me thinking about coaches and the hall of fame, and Dave Duncan and the Hall of Fame particularly. The Times compared a recent HOF inductee as a manager to TLR and Bobby Cox. Then, they raised the issue of pitching coaches.

"What will make their candidacies interesting is that each has had a large part of his success tied to a single pitching coach — Dave Duncan for La Russa and Leo Mazzone for Cox. If La Russa or Cox is eventually inducted, it will raise the question over why their coaches, or any coaches, have not been elected to the Hall of Fame.

"Mazzone’s stock in the eyes of the baseball world has fallen some since his failed stint coaching for the Orioles, but Duncan is once again being recognized as the pitching coach who can revitalize a struggling career.

"Among his many success stories are the drastic turnarounds of Dave Stewart, Bob Welch, Chris Carpenter and Darryl Kile. That has continued this season with the progress of Braden Looper and the emergence of Kyle Lohse as a quality starting pitcher.

"Before working with Duncan, Lohse had a career record of 63-74 with a 4.82 E.R.A. By reducing the number of base runners he has allowed, Lohse has lowered his E.R.A. to 3.35. His record is 12-2 entering Sunday’s scheduled start.

"There is currently no provision for a coach to be elected to the Hall, but there is a decent argument that without Duncan, La Russa would probably not be going, either."

What do you all think? Should coaches be allowed in the HOF? If so, should Duncan? Who are the pitchers he has turned around most dramatically? I can't personally think of a man who presents a better case for allowing coaches into the HOF.

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