our long national nightmare is over.

traded to the Indians for AA RP Luis Perdomo, a power arm with a plus-plus fastball, a decent slider, and a work-in-progress changeup. he regularly hits 95-96 apparently. he's 24, which might be a little high for AA, but he's doing well there. 

all in all, we traded a pitcher with no value and no future here for a decent power arm. it's not amazingly great, but i think it's pretty good for us. add Perdomo to Perez and Motte. in a few years, we might have a lights-out 7-8-9 combo.

doesn't do anything for this year, tho.

Glaus has a player option for next season, which he may well exercise. but if he does exercise it, he'd actually be taking a pay cut from this season (from $12.5mn this year to $11.25mn next). he may not want to do this, especially if he thinks he could still get a max multi-year contract elsewhere. he's only 31 this year, so it's definitely possible that an AL club which could DH him once or twice a week might offer 3 years @ $12+mn per. the Cards shouldn't match that. if he finishes the season healthy and with the type of numbers that he's on pace for (~ 120 OPS+, 25-30HR), i'd consider it likely that he's gone.

but the in-house 3B options are pretty bleak. Barden and Freese aren't exactly tearing up AAA, and nobody else is even close to MLB-ready. it might only take Wallace a couple of years, but the team seems positioned to contend in '09-'10. 

so who's available? the main 3B FAs in '09 (other than Glaus) seem to be Joe Crede, Casey Blake, Dallas McPherson, and Nomar Garciaparra. Nomar shouldn't be considered for obvious reasons, and it definitely seems possible that Blake and/or Crede will be re-signed by their respective clubs. both are solid, if unremarkable, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and have had some injury concerns. they will be the top two non-Glaus options for teams looking to upgrade 3B in the off-season, so they will probably be priced out of the Cards' range anyway.

McPherson, however, is younger than the others (27 this year), is destroying AAA (1.121 OPS with 30 HR already), and has already proved that he is capable of holding his own in the bigs when healthy. he had a back injury that hurt him with the Angels, but he seems to be fully recovered from that. the dude is a monster talent and probably won't cost as much as any of the other options, especially if the Marlins decide to re-sign Cantu. i wanted the Cards to take a flyer on McPherson this past off-season (he ended up signing for less that $0.5mn), and i hope that they have their eye on him for next year. a 2-3 year contract could bridge the gap to Wallace without costing too much cash and subtracting zero prospects. it would be a little bit of a gamble, but i don't think a prohibitive one, and the potential pay-off is huge.

other (realistic) possibilities include going after Andy Marte (if the Tribe re-sign Blake), who will be out of options next year, but his star has certainly faded since '04-'05. the only other FA 3B are guys like Ensberg and Helms who are... uninspiring, to say the least.

thoughts? 

find it here. The Cardinals have the 13th overall pick, as known, but also picked up a 1st-round supplemental (#39) because Percival was a Type-B FA. i'm confused; i thought the Cards didn't offer Percival arbitration because of a "gentleman's agreement" last year when he signed a minor-league contract, and thus lost the opportunity to pick up a supp. pick. anybody know how this worked?

the Cards have 3 picks in the top 60. does anybody know of a good scouting report of potential picks this year that we could cross-reference to the draft order to get some idea of who the Cards might pick? also, do the Cards get an extra pick since they couldn't come to an agreement with Russell, or does that rule only apply for the first 3 rounds.

(as a quick aside, the Cards take a lot of heat for not signing all their picks, or for not drafting guys they think they won't be able to sign. this year, LAA, Boston, Philly, Houston, and ATL all have supp. 2nd or 3rd round picks b/c they couldn't sign their pick from last year. all of these clubs have a reputation for drafting pretty well, and none of them are thought of as cheap-skates w/r/t payroll. just thought a little comparison is appropriate.)

 

A nice little article in Slate, about how Biggio was one of James' favorite players for years before the sheen wore off. Money quote:

"I'll still say today, if there was a draft and you could look ahead and say, "OK, that guy's going to be Ken Griffey, that guy's going to be Frank Thomas, that guy's going to be Juan Gonzalez, that guy's going to be Tom Glavine, that guy's going to be Craig Biggio," just give me Biggio and I'll take my chances. Maybe that's not what the numbers say is the right answer, but Biggio was the guy who would do whatever needed to be done. Makes it a lot easier to build a team.

And then the story went on a little too long. You ever go to a movie, it' s pretty good for about an hour and a half but then the story is over but it's like the director can't find the ending so it goes on for another half-hour looking for some way to tie things together? That's kind of Biggio's career; it was over, and then it went on for quite awhile."

It's a nice bit of perspective on Biggio, from the obvious perspective of a non-partisan baseball fan. I've never especially liked Biggio, probably because he killed the Cards too many times through sheer peskiness, but I've grown to appreciate him a bit more after reading it.

My favorite Biggio moment is still having him get thrown out at second trying to stretch his 3,000th hit from a single to a double, but he really was a good player for a long time.

http://www.slate.com/id/2184797/nav/tap3/

Rumors not yet heard:

apparently, the Brewers have had internal discussions regarding acquiring Rolen. This doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense unless Braun moves to LF, but it's a rumor I haven't heard yet. Who would they offer in return? If the Cards eat some of Rolen's salary, then Capuano could be available. This doesn't seem very likely, even ignoring the fact that intra-division trades are rare, but I'm bored and interested in any Cardinals-related discussion not involving TLR's DUI/Silva/Lohse/or SS.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/brewers-rumors.html

Apparently the Rangers are looking for a CF since they missed out on Hunter, aren't very interested in Rowand, and aren't getting anywhere with Crisp until Boston finishes with its negotiations for Santana. Candidates apparently include Pierre, Baldelli, and Edmonds. Pierre seems stupid because of the money and years, Baldelli's value is completely unknown at this point, so that leaves Edmonds. I would think that the Cards want Edmonds to retire as a Cardinal, and he's a 10-5 player and might very well veto a trade to TX, but again... I'm bored. I can't imagine that TX would offer much in the way of propects or valuable MLB-ready talent, and the Cards don't have much OF depth with Encarnacion out and Ankiel still a relatively unknown quantity, but stranger things have happened.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/starks-latest-e.html

thoughts?

The Cubs have already been pretty active, shipping Jones to Detroit for Infante (and salary help) and Monroe to the Twins for PTBNL. they're switching Dempster to the rotation (thank you, God!), and are apparently packaging a deal to try to get Carl Crawford (Hill + Marmol enough? if not, some deal including Pie, or Cedeno). they're also rumored to be making a run at Fukodome and a couple of Japanese pitchers. if they start Dempster and trade Marmol, i'm sure they'll go after some closer. maybe not Cordero, but perhaps a trade for Fuentes or something.

i've gotta hand it to them. they aren't content with a team that was probably the best in the NL from June till the end of the season. they're upping the ante for the rest of the division as well. the way they are building the team, the Cards will have a difficult time contending in '09 or '10 either, much less '08.

I understand the frustration with the Piniero signing. I share some of it. But I've been trained as an economist, and we have in rule in that profession: when asked whether a given economic decision is wise, the first response should always be "compared to what?"

This seems to be the most pressing question. If the Cards didn't sign Piniero (at a below-market rate, no less), what would you have liked to see? The other options seem to be:

1. Hope for the best with Mulder, and give 60+ starts to Reyes/Thompson/Wellemeyer/Maroth.
2. Hope for the best with Mulder, and sign somebody else, like Carlos Silva (presumably for a lot more money and years than Piniero, plus foregone draft picks), plus give 30+ starts to Reyes/Thompson/Wellemeyer/Maroth
3. Assume the worst for Mulder, and be prepared to give 90+ starts to Reyes/Thompson/Wellemeyer/Maroth.
4. Assume the worst for Mulder, sign somebody like Silva, and give 60+ starts to Reyes/Thompson/Wellemeyer/Maroth.
5. Throw '08 away, and hope for the best in '09.
6. Trade Duncan for a pitcher (e.g. Noah Lowry), who may not be appreciably better than Piniero, but will be cheaper.

As we should have learned by now, counting on Mulder to be healthy and/or good is a fool's game. It seems equally dubious to assume that Reyes will suddenly materialize into a quality MLB pitcher (at least in StL), that Thompson will out-perform his peripherals, Wellemeyer will be able to pitch into (much less through) the 5th inning, or that Maroth can get anybody out at all.

This also disregards the likelihood of injury, which is a strong possibility. Mulder is an obvious candidate, but Looper's arm may have taken on extra strain this year, Wellemeyer was injured for part of last season, and Wainwright has never thrown as many innings as he did in '07. This staff looks very fragile to me, and has no in-house replacement options.

There is another option, of course: converting Franklin into a starter. he might provide similar production to Piniero at a lower cost. This is, by the way, still an option; he would simply take 30 starts away from Reyes/Thompson/Wellemeyer/Maroth.  We could certainly use both, if they could each provide 180 league-average innings (or something close to it). we'd have a very-average starting staff, but there are certainly worse fates.

Not only that, but signing Piniero does not preclude a trade or other signing. It is still possible that Duncan could be traded. Several teams, like SanFran, have a need for OBP and power in the OF position, and some young pitching to trade. if such a move could be followed by trading Reyes + mid-level prospect to Philly for Bourne (or a 3-team trade with Tor.?), then several birds are killed. the Piniero trade doesn't make this impossible. in fact, it makes it more likely, since Reyes becomes a bit more expendable.

it is still possible for the Cards to contend in '08 in the NL Central, esp. if Rolen rebounds, we get any production out of 2B, Ankiel contributes at least 80% of his Aug./Sept.'07 level, we get something approaching league-average pitching, and we stay relatively healthy (i.e. no long DL stint for Pujols).

in my opinion, Piniero moves us closer to that goal, not further away. and his signing doesn't mortgage the future. yes, it's an uninspired signing, but that doesn't mean its impact won't be positive.

so I ask: what should the Cardinals have done, rather than signing Piniero? Or, if you prefer, what should they do now that they have signed him?

According to the P-D:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/00311168DFA0F8D4862573470061D0B7 ?OpenDocument

Lambert didn't really do a whole lot to impress this year, but he's still a former first-rounder. He's still got a shot to make the bigs, and it knocks a chink out of our depth.

I still think Maroth can make a contribution, but I'd've liked to've kept Lambert.

This is kind of long, so please bear with me.

I appreciated LB's post a few days ago, breaking down Reyes' 2-seam vs. 4-seam fastballs. There were some good lessons there, but a few people here seem to accept it as gospel truth, esp. those in the Wells diary. For those, this is "overwhelming evidence" that TLR/Dunc have absolutely no idea what they're doing and that Reyes should stop throwing the 2-seam altogether. But I'm not quite as convinced, for a few reasons:

1. Reyes lit up AAA last year, and has so far this year, at the same rates that he always has. But we have no reason to believe that he has stopped throwing the 2-seam in the minors. In fact, it's safe to assume that the opposite is true: Reyes is still throwing the 2-seam in the minors, and his numbers there are as good as ever. But, for some reason, he's been unsuccessful in the Bigs while being dominating in the minors. LB's data doesn't speak to this anomaly.
2. His peripherals in the Bigs this year are completely out of whack with his minor-league numbers. Last year in AAA, while throwing the 2-seam, Reyes had nearly an 8:1 K:BB ratio. This year in the majors, it's about 2:1. That's a pretty big discrepancy. Perhaps AAA hitters are more susceptible to chasing bad breaking balls and pitches out of the zone. Perhaps in the bigs, the hitters are more patient and willing to take a walk, or wait for a mistake that they can drive. BAA shows some of this: it was .221 in AAA last year, and it's .259 this year in the majors.  his inability to pitch more than 6 innings a single time in the Bigs this year is also evidence of that; hitters are taking being more selective, taking more pitches, and taking more BBs or swinging at the pitches they can drive.
3. The data. it's freakishly impossible that, out of 53 swings against Reyes' 4-seam, only three have been put in play. That is unsustainable. I haven't thoroughly researched it, but I can't believe that any pitcher at any point in history sustained that kind of deception with any pitch, much less a 91 mph fastball. it's a statistical anomaly. Not only that, but...
4. Reyes' 2-seam fastball is setting up his 4-seam, making it much more effective than it would be if Reyes wasn't throwing the 2-seam at all. if hitters are expecting a sinking 88 mph 2-seamer, and get a 91 mph high heater instead, they might be fooled. if they are sitting on the 4-seamer the whole time, we would expect a lot more of those swings to result in balls-in-play. this is made even more true because Reyes' curveball is slop and he can't seem to consistently throw his changeup for a strike anymore. hitters are looking for his 2-seam because they know TLR/Dunc's philosophy and have scouted Reyes so far, so they are hitting it more effectively. this allows Reyes to sneak the 4-seamer past them, or force them to foul it off. but if Reyes stops throwing the 2-seam, everyone will sit on the 4-seam, and the deception will erode, making the 4-seam easier to hit.
5. the data selection is deceptive. first of all, LB left out all fastballs from thigh-high to letter-high. a lot of these will probably be 4-seamers, as 2-seamers are supposed to break down and out of the K-zone (or at least to the bottom edge of it). if a pitch is belt-high, it's either a 4-seam or a mis-located 2-seam. by leaving out those pitches, LB is essentially examining the very top and very bottom of the strike zone and pitches outside the zone. not only that, but a letter-high pitch is rarely even called a strike anymore, and that's the bottom boundary of the "4-seam zone" that LB looked at. so the weird stat that only 3 4-seamers have been put in play gets a little context: a lot of those 4-seamers were balls. this would also help to explain why so many of the 4-seamers LB tracked were fouled off (60%) compared to the number of 2-seamers fouled off (30%). if Reyes starts throwing only 4-seam fastballs, he's going to have to bring them under the letters more to get more strikes called and the pitches will get hit harder.

i think i know what LB's intention was in leaving out all of the fastballs in between the thigh and the letters: it's harder to distinguish whether those pitches were 2-seam or 4-seam. but it's impossible to get a full grasp of the effectiveness of Reyes' fastballs without including all the data.

6. The problem isn't that Reyes throws the 2-seam; it's that he can't locate it. again, perhaps LB can shed some additional light on this question, but anecdotally, it seems like Reyes has less control with the 2-seam than with the 4-seam. This is not necessarily a reason to stop throwing the 2-seam, but it could be the reason Reyes was sent down to AAA to try to further hone the pitch in a situation where the result matters less. as i mentioned already, Reyes' AAA numbers last year and so far this year indicate that he's learned just about all he can from facing AAA hitters. but if he's down there to learn pitch mastery, then it makes more sense. i'd still rather him pitch up here than Wellemeyer or Wells, but the decision becomes a bit more logical if viewed in that light. if Reyes is having trouble throwing the 2-seam properly after having worked on it for nearly two years, then that isn't a problem with TLR/Dunc's philosophy; it's a problem with Reyes' ability. perhaps that's an argument in favor of junking of the 2-seam. but if TLR/Dunc believe that he can eventually master the pitch, then it can make him a better pitcher.

That's enough for now. But I would like to reiterate one thing. Reyes doesn't have a good breaking ball, and he has had trouble locating the changeup. Good fastball pitchers have great complimentary breaking balls (Carp, Santana, Pedro) or great complimentary secondary fastballs (Clemens, Carp, Wells, Rivera). There aren't too many guys who have had sustained success in the majors with one good pitch, one so-so pitch, & and one horrible pitch. without the 2-seam, that's Reyes' entire arsenal. in the short term, Reyes might be better without the 2-seam. in the long term, success will be more difficult to maintain without it.

please forgive any typos, misspellings, etc.

The Royals waived ex-Cub Todd Wellmeyer. the Cards picked him up. his ERA this season is 10.34. for his career, his ERA is 5.65, with 155 SO and 122 BB in 178+ IP.

it likely means that Falkenbourg is gone. he's out of options.

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070515&content_id=1966835&vkey=news_ stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl